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Analysis of the ceramic industry in 2012: the eggs are covered under the nest
It is reported that Foshan Ceramics has encountered a difficult business situation: foreign anti-dumping "surrounding the city", domestic demand has been greatly reduced, manpower and raw material costs have been rising, coupled with the continued expansion of production capacity, the era of ceramic industry "printed ceramic tiles is like printing money" Once gone, the business of Tao enterprises suffered from chills. What is more serious is that after the central government adjusts the policy of “unchanging real estate regulationâ€, the possibility of real estate recovery in a short period of time is reduced, and the ceramic industry that is dependent on it will face a more severe situation. The 2012 winter is approaching and has become the consensus of many ceramic industry people. In the end of the nest, one of the most concerned things in China is the decline in house prices, and the bosses of the ceramic enterprises are extremely attentive. When Li Zhilin was in contact with real estate bosses, he repeatedly asked a few questions: How much can house prices fall? When does it bottom out? When is trading volume? Li Zhilin’s concern for real estate is because ceramics business is closely related to the real estate market. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in November 2011, the decline in house prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities, especially in restricted cities, continued to deepen, and the volume of transactions continued to shrink. The decline in the volume of commercial housing means that the demand for decoration is reduced, which has a greater impact on the downstream of the real estate industry, the building materials industry. It is understood that the National Building Materials Household Climate Index (bhi) released by China Building Materials Circulation Association was 110.18 in November, a decrease of 9.08% from the previous month and a decrease of 0.35% from the same period of last year. In fact, the impact of the property market on the ceramic industry has already appeared in the second half of last year. It is understood that due to the shrinking market, Foshan ceramics enterprises are more difficult to operate, and it is estimated that more than 50% of the company's product inventory exceeds a reasonable level. For the management of Tao enterprises this year, what is more worrying is that the cold weather of the property market will continue. The Central Economic Work Conference held in December last year pointed out that “the policy of real estate regulation and control will not be shaken, and the reasonable return of housing prices will be promoted.†This adjustment has made the industry generally pessimistic about the development of the real estate industry in 2012. Under the nest, there is a complete egg? "The prosperity of the real estate market is closely related to the ceramic industry. As the regulation will continue, the operation of the ceramic industry next year is not optimistic." Li Zhilin said. Luo Yi, chairman of Asia Pacific Media, which has 16 home industry publications and in-depth research on the pan-home industry, said that the pan-home industry had experienced winter in the second half of last year, and this "severe winter" is expected to continue until 2013. The industry is no exception. The production capacity is still expanding, but the export market is also not optimistic. Anti-dumping will be the biggest obstacle for Foshan Ceramics' export this year. It is understood that in 2011 alone, countries such as the European Union, South Korea, and Argentina initiated anti-dumping investigations on Chinese-made ceramic tiles. In particular, the implementation period of the EU's anti-dumping duties was five years, which had a huge impact on Foshan ceramics exports. According to Asian ceramics ceo Pu Dingxin, due to the EU's anti-dumping, only in the second half of last year's Canton Fair, merchants from Europe fell by more than 50%, and the volume of orders also fell by nearly 30%. Foshan Customs statistics show that from January to October 2011, Foshan exported 26.85 million square meters of ceramic tiles to the EU, worth 160 million US dollars, the volume and value dropped 24.4% and 20.1% respectively. According to industry insiders, in 2012, the United States, Brazil, Vietnam and other places may launch anti-dumping on Chinese ceramic tiles, coupled with the risk of the global economy facing another downside, the ceramic export situation is grim. Whether the ceramic industry is booming or not, the trend from the ceramics industry can also be seen. The general manager of Modena Machinery, Guan Huojin, told reporters that since the second half of 2011, orders for the entire industry chain have fallen sharply. "The total number of presses like the leading boss Koda in 2010 dropped by nearly 50% year-on-year, compared to last year. The situation is not good. It is expected that the total number of presses will not exceed 500 this year, and the overall situation is still relatively severe.†Unlike the decline in market demand, ceramic tile production is still growing rapidly. According to data released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the national ceramic tile production in the first 10 months of 2011 was 7.54 billion square meters, an increase of 14%. Among them, the output of Guangdong and Fujian with a large proportion of exports increased by more than 16%, driving the growth of ceramic tile production nationwide by 10 percentage points. In the view of Guan Huojin, overcapacity is also a problem faced by the ceramic industry this year. According to the survey of China Building Sanitary Ceramics Association, the current production line of the national ceramic industry is more than 3,000. According to the calculation of 330 days a year, the output will exceed 10 billion square meters, and according to the '12th Five-Year Plan, 2015 The planned production of ceramic tiles is 9.5 billion square meters, which means that the existing production capacity can meet the market demand without adding any one production line.†While the sales are facing difficulties, the cost of ceramic enterprises is still increasing. It is understood that in 2011, the price of zirconium silicate in the glaze, green body and frit is very high, from about 10,000 yuan / ton to more than 20,000 yuan / ton, the price has doubled, and many color glaze The cost increase of materials and the like is also above 50%. In addition, the Foshan ceramic industry generally has a wage increase of more than 20%, and the profit margin of ceramic enterprises is greatly reduced. Industry insiders expect that rising costs will still be one of the pressures to operate next year.