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On March 25, Sun Guangbin, secretary general of the Solar Energy Products Branch of the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Mechanical and Electrical Products, said at the Intersolar China 2014 seminar that the Asian market accounted for nearly 50% of exports in 2013, becoming the largest exporter of photovoltaic products in China, 2014. In January-February, the weight of the Asian market was further enhanced.
Benefiting from the sudden boom in emerging markets, some Chinese PV manufacturers are beginning to turn around and plan to expand capacity. At the same time, most domestic professionals are optimistic about the prospects of the Asian market.
However, behind the sudden emergence of emerging markets, there are hidden dangers of lack of stamina.
The continued prosperity of the Asian PV market is doubtful due to Japan's subsidy policy adjustments, rising land prices, high financing costs in India, lack of mandatory rules, government changes, limited demand in the Philippines, and ample supply from local Korean manufacturers.
Japan and India drive Asian prosperity
Since the second quarter of 2013, thanks to the sudden outbreak of the Asian market, Artes Solar Power Group has turned a profit.
Data shows that Artes shipped 455MW in the second quarter, 36% of which were exported to Japan, although in the next two quarters, the company's exports in the Japanese market fell to 29.5% and 19.7%, respectively. But from a year-round perspective, the Asian market still replaces Europe as the largest exporter of Artes.
Similar to the market changes experienced by Artes, last year, the proportion of Asian markets in almost all Chinese PV manufacturers increased to varying degrees.
Sun Guangbin said that from 2013 to February 2014, the Asian market has replaced Europe as the largest exporter of photovoltaic products, and the European market share fell from the top to the third, after Africa.
According to statistics cited by Sun Guangbin, in 2013, the amount of Chinese PV products exported to the Asian market was US$5.5 billion, accounting for 44.78% of the total global export value, up 124.32% from 2012; the export volume in January-February 2014 was nearly 12 In the case of US$100 million, the proportion increased further to 52.39% and increased by 80.91% year-on-year.
The main driving force behind the changes in China's PV product export pattern is Japan.
After the closure of some nuclear facilities and the power shortage after the 2011 earthquake and tsunami, Japan has been actively promoting solar power technology, and the Japanese government has introduced an attractive electricity price subsidy policy to stimulate the growth of solar energy demand. Active policies, along with Europe's unattractive solar incentives, have pushed Japan to the second place in the global solar market.
In 2013, Japan built 7.5 GW of various types of photovoltaic power plants, 54% of which were imported. China gained US$3 billion in revenue, and its export share in this emerging market increased by 212.44%. In 2012, the installed capacity of solar power plants in Japan was only 2.5 GW.
Today, Japan's largest photovoltaic power plant is located in Kagoshima, with an installed capacity of 70MW, using photovoltaic cells from Japan's Kyocera Corporation. In 2014, a larger 80MW power station will break this record.
The strong performance of the Japanese PV market last year was partly due to its higher solar power market price, and Japan’s solar power purchase price was twice as high as China’s. “Higher solar price is the main driver.†Japanese RTS manager lzumi kaizuka told the 21st Century Business Herald: “The price of the system below 10 kV is RMB 2.3/kWh, and the price above 10 kV is 2.18 RMB/ Kilowatt hours."
As local Japanese manufacturers have difficulty meeting market demand, global solar PV equipment suppliers have gradually moved away from Europe to Japan.
Compared with the steady expansion of the solar industry in Japan, in 2013, the total installed capacity of photovoltaic equipment in Europe fell by 61.98%. The views of the industry tend to be consistent: Europe continues to reduce electricity price subsidies and cut a series of incentives, while the introduction of anti-dumping tariffs has led many suppliers to be forced to change the sales market.
In order to move to a more abundant, safe and clean energy supply pattern, the Indian government is determined to increase the proportion of solar power. The adjustment of India's energy policy has led to a surge in solar power generation in 2012 and 2013.
In 2013, India became China's second largest export market in Asia. The export value of Chinese manufacturers increased by 175.16% year-on-year to US$570 million.
“India’s energy consumption ranks fourth in the world, with 7 billion kWh of electricity last year, and 92% of coal-fired power generation caused serious pollution.†Madhavan Nampoothiri, chairman of the Indian Renewable Energy Consulting Group, said: “India, new solar energy in India from 2012 to March 2014 The installed capacity is 2.2 GW, and there was almost no PV power plant before."
In fact, India's lighting resources are extremely rich, and Madhavan nampoothiri quoted official data showing that the number of sunny days in most parts of India is more than 300 days, and the light intensity is double that of Germany.
But despite the construction of a 2.2 GW PV power station in one breath, India's solar installed capacity accounts for only 1% of the total installed capacity, and 70% is concentrated in Gujarat and Rajasthan. It is reported that Madhya Pradesh is the centralized installation site of its next photovoltaic power station. Madhavan nampoothiri predicts that by 2022, the potential installed capacity in India can reach 34GW.
Persistence pending
The growth of the Asian market has enabled Chinese solar equipment manufacturers to re-start the engine of capacity expansion.
Yingli Group, which used to raise pigs as a sideline, plans to increase its Japanese exports from 6% to 12%-14% in 2014, exceeding 500MW; Artes hopes to occupy 8%-10% of the Japanese market this year.
At the same time, most industry experts in China are optimistic about the sustainability of the Asian market.
"The Japanese market will continue for some time. After the Fukushima incident, the Abe government will be able to restore the nuclear power ratio to 15%, which is far from the previous 33%. It needs 30 million kilowatts of new power generation equipment." Li Junfeng, chairman of the Association's Renewable Energy Professional Committee, told the 21st Century Business Herald: "The conversion to photovoltaic power plants requires 7GW-8GW."
In Li Junfeng's view, Japan will choose photovoltaic power generation instead of the high-priced LNG. He expects that the Japanese market will increase its installed capacity by 1GW per year for seven or eight years.
Sun Guangbin’s point of view is similar to Li Junfeng. He told the 21st Century Business Herald: "The Asian export market has not been in trouble for several years."
However, behind the sudden emergence of emerging markets, there are hidden dangers of lack of stamina.
It is reported that the Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry will soon lower the solar power purchase price at the end of this month.
Unlike the long-term fixed policy of China's new energy tariffs, Japan adjusts subsidy policies every year based on changes in power plant construction and operating costs. Lzumi kaizuka predicts that electricity prices will fall from RMB 2.30/kWh to 2.24 yuan/kWh (less than 10 kV access) and from RMB 2.18/kWh to 1.94 yuan/kWh (more than 10 kV access) ). This is the second time since 2012 that the price of electricity has been lowered.
In addition, the annual installation scale planned by the Japanese government is often higher than the actual scale, which is exactly the opposite of the situation in China. According to lzumi kaizuka, in 2014, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry will cancel 5GW-6GW of approved solar power plants, and the delays in these projects are mainly due to lack of grid-connected licenses or shortage of workers.
Lzumi Kaizuka believes that the peak of solar power plant construction in Japan has passed, and there will be a turning point in 2015. He told the 21st Century Business Herald: "2012 and 2013 are peak years, and the electricity price subsidies in 2015 showed a sharp cut. The scale of power station construction may begin to decline in 2016."
India, another export market in Asia, is worse off than Japan and has shown signs of slowing growth last year.
In fact, India's new installed capacity has reached its peak in 2011, with a total of 994 MW of new power plants. Before that, India's solar power generation was almost zero. However, since 2012, the new installed capacity in India has continued to decline. In the same year, only 656MW of new construction was completed, and in 2013 it continued to decrease to 522MW.
India’s uncertainty is perhaps the largest in Asia. Madhavan nampoothiri believes that policies, rules and financing costs will hinder the continued development of solar power plants in India.
“The policy after the Indian government’s reelection this year is the biggest uncertainty of solar power generation. Even if the government continues to support new energy sources, the lack of mandatory Internet access regulations and 15% of financing costs are also obstacles for investors.†He concluded: “Before In two years, India has a good start, but it will move to low growth."
In order to cope with power shortages and pollution, the Philippine government implemented the Renewable Energy Act in 2011 and formulated a number of preferential policies. The country plans to build a total of 285 MW of solar power plants by 2030, but in the eyes of Chinese manufacturers, this is too small.
Jae Hong Seo, general manager of the Korea Solar Industry Alliance, predicts that the cumulative installed capacity will reach 17.5 GW by 2035. By then, South Korea's solar installed capacity will account for 45% of the total renewable energy capacity.
But Chinese manufacturers do not have to resort to South Korea’s idea, “photovoltaic equipment exports account for 90% of Korea’s renewable energy equipment exports,†said Jae Hong Seo.
Asian PV export market peak has been stagnant or difficult to sustain
In the past year, the Asian market has replaced Europe as the largest exporter of photovoltaic products in China.