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In recent years, the reasons for this round of economic downturn and its policy response have been widely discussed in the field of macroeconomic research, roughly divided into two kinds of understanding: the first view is that the economic downturn is external and cyclical, and the way out lies in the stimulus. "The demand side total stimulus"; the second view is that the economic downturn is a structural and institutional slowdown, and the way out lies in reform, "supply-side structural reform."
Whether it is macro, meso or micro, it can be widely observed that China's economic slowdown in this round is mainly structural and institutional. More importantly, the market should be structured, but it is difficult to achieve due to institutional obstacles. It is more stimulating and less reformed. The old growth model refuses to withdraw. The proliferation of hidden guarantees leads to mismatch of funds and forms three major financial black holes. The iron triangle of the old growth model: real estate, local financing platforms and overcapacity industries, brewing financial risks and hidden unemployment.
The policy should correspond to the supply-side structural reform rather than the demand-side aggregate stimulus. If the economic slowdown is externality and cyclical, and the growth platform and dynamic structure remain unchanged, the economy should return to the growth center through countercyclical easing. However, if the economic slowdown is structural and institutional, the growth platform and power have undergone profound changes. The institutional factors have hindered the structural clearing and solidified the original economic structure. The overcapacity enterprises have become "zombie enterprises" and only stimulated. The failure to reform is actually to delay the clearing of the old growth model and encourage the addition of leverage. It is the “Minsky moment†and leads to the rhythm of the financial crisis.
Since the international financial crisis in 2008, faced with economic downturn, China has adopted policy instruments based on fiscal stimulus and currency discharge, but failed to effectively solve the problems of the Chinese economy, leaving a lot of risks and aftereffects, policy orientation. In the end, the choice was based on “supply-side reformâ€.
The capital market will assume an important mission in the supply-side reform. In the future, with the gradual adjustment of A-shares and the end of the bubble, the reform of the capital market will usher in important opportunities and time windows. Accelerate the formation of a stock market with complete financing functions, solid foundation system, effective market supervision, and adequate protection of investor rights, and promote economic transformation and upgrading. Vigorously promote asset securitization and resolve financial risks. Develop an open and inclusive multi-level capital market to reduce corporate financing costs. Encourage the optimization and restructuring of the capital market to resolve backward production capacity. Relying on the capital market, we will relax access, introduce new investors, and accelerate the reform of administrative monopoly industries. Implement structural tax cuts and encourage innovation. Promote the reform of state-owned enterprises and increase the rate of asset securitization. While promoting supply-side reforms, we will build a “complete network†of society and embrace the bottom line of social stability.
With the supply-side reforms breaking through the ice, all sectors will have more confidence in China's economic prospects.
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The Party Central Committee and the State Council attach great importance to the important role and mission of multi-level capital markets in the supply-side reform to promote economic transformation. In 2015, the Central Economic Work Conference proposed “strengthening the structural reform of the supply side†and repeatedly discussed the important role of the multi-level capital market in “de-capacity, destocking, deleveraging, cost reduction, and short-boardingâ€. On December 23, 2015, the State Council executive meeting “determined measures to further significantly increase the proportion of direct financing and improve the economic efficiency of financial services entitiesâ€.
I. Supply-side structural reform and demand-side aggregate stimulus: problems, discussions and policy responses in China's economy in recent years
The economy is divided into supply and demand. Demand mainly refers to consumption, investment, exports and stocks. Supply mainly refers to capital, labor, technology and institutions. Economic problems are divided into demand problems and supply problems. If the economic downturn is mainly the demand side total problem, then the demand management tools such as fiscal and monetary should be used to stimulate the total demand; if the economic downturn is mainly the supply side structure problem, it should be broken through the reform. Corresponding to the “supply-side structural reform†is the “demand side total stimulusâ€.
1. China's economic downturn is mainly structural and institutional, not external and cyclical.
In recent years, the reasons for this round of economic downturn and its policy response have been widely discussed in the field of macroeconomic research, roughly divided into two kinds of understanding: the first view is that the economic downturn is external and cyclical, and the way out lies in stimulus; The second view is that the economic downturn is a structural and institutional slowdown, and the way out lies in reform.
The first view is that the main reason for this round of economic downturn is the global economic recession since the financial crisis and the cyclical adjustments in the country. If the global economic recovery in the future and the domestic cyclical adjustments are over, the Chinese economy will periodically recover and return to the 8%-10% high growth track. Externalist and cyclicalists believe that the current China's economic growth platform and power structure have not changed, but due to high-speed growth in 2002-2007, a large number of inefficient production capacity, global economic crisis, and other reasons, resulting in overcapacity and financial oversupply Leverage, subsequent de-capacity and deleveraging led to economic slowdown.
However, since 2013, the world economy has continued to recover slowly. The United States has entered a stable recovery track and raised interest rates for the first time in December 2015. The European and Japanese economies have also bottomed out, but China’s economic growth continues to slow down.
The second view is that the main reason for this round of economic downturn is to support the change in the power structure of the original high growth, resulting in a decline in the potential growth rate of the economy. In 2003 and 2008, Lewis' first and second inflection points appeared successively. In 2012, the working-age population aged 15-59 began to show a net decrease, labor costs continued to rise sharply, multinational companies shifted their low-end production bases, and processing trade bid farewell to the high-growth era. In the end-processing industry, there is a surplus of overcapacity; in 2014, the number of home buyers in the 20-50 years old peaked and began to decrease, and the urban households reached a set, the urbanization rate reached 54.77%, the long-term turning point of real estate appeared, and the third- and fourth-tier cities faced Inventory pressure, real estate development investment growth rate fell from 19.3% in early 2014 to 1.3% in January-November 2015; residents from residential consumption to service consumption upgrade, heavy chemical industry overcapacity increased; domestic overcapacity superimposed international bulk commodities Prices have fallen, prices have shown signs of deflation; some industries have begun to reduce the space for technology introduction and digestion, and are facing a shift towards original technological innovation.
Whether it is macro, meso or micro, it can be widely observed that China's economic slowdown in this round is mainly structural and institutional. More importantly, the market should be structured, but it is difficult to achieve due to institutional obstacles. It is more stimulating and less reformed. The old growth model refuses to withdraw. The proliferation of hidden guarantees leads to mismatch of funds and forms three major financial black holes. The iron triangle of the old growth model: real estate, local financing platforms and overcapacity industries, brewing financial risks and hidden unemployment.
2. The policy should correspond to the supply-side structural reform rather than the demand-side aggregate stimulus.
If the economic slowdown is externality and cyclical, and the growth platform and dynamic structure remain unchanged, the economy should return to the growth center through countercyclical easing. For example, in 2004-2005, it was a cyclical slowdown. The advantage of cheap labor cost made China's labor-intensive industrial products marketed in the world. The rapid residential and residential consumption upgrades drove a large amount of housing and infrastructure investment demand. Therefore, after moderate relaxation of policies, 2006-2007 The economy returns to cyclical prosperity.
However, if the economic slowdown is structural and institutional, the growth platform and power have undergone profound changes. The institutional factors have hindered the structural clearing and solidified the original economic structure. The overcapacity enterprises have become "zombie enterprises" and only stimulated. The failure to reform is actually to delay the clearing of the old growth model and encourage the addition of leverage. It is the “Minsky moment†and leads to the rhythm of the financial crisis.
Since the international financial crisis in 2008, faced with economic downturn, China has adopted policy instruments based on fiscal stimulus and currency discharge, but failed to effectively solve the problems of the Chinese economy, leaving a lot of risks and aftereffects, policies The final choice of orientation is based on “supply-side reformâ€. In 2009, China adopted a 4 trillion fiscal stimulus. Although it played an emergency role in coping with the international financial crisis at the time, it also led to the resurgence of heavy chemical industry, increased overcapacity, and accumulation of financial risks. Since 2014, China has adopted monetary easing. Although it has played a certain role in reducing corporate financing costs, it has also led to negative effects such as asset price bubbles in the stock market and the delay in excess capacity.
At present, China's economy is on the surface of speed-shifting, which is essentially a structural upgrade, and fundamentally depends on reform and transformation.
In 2011, the team of the Development Research Center of the State Council, where Ren Zeping came, first proposed the “growth phase transition†in China, and later adopted the “speed shiftâ€. In 2014, after Ren Zeping joined Guotai Junan Securities [microblogging], he tried to establish a “transformation macro†framework in the capital market to explain and predict the future of China's economy and capital market, and proposed “new 5% better than the old 8%†(July 2014) On the 19th, the 5% new growth platform built through reform in the future is better than the 7%-8% old growth platform that was spurred by the past. The economy has changed from factor-driven to innovation-driven, and the growth model has moved from speed-effectiveness to The quality and efficiency upgrade, the industry from the heavy chemical industry to the high-end manufacturing and modern service industry as the main upgrade, corporate profits have risen, the residents' lives have improved, the government's prestige has improved, and the "new normal" to prosperity and sustainable development.
Second, the capital market will undertake an important mission in the supply-side reform
The way out for the Chinese economy lies in the reform of the supply-side structure, the promotion of excess capacity in the heavy chemical industry, and the liberalization of high-end manufacturing and modern service industries. The capital market will undertake an important mission in the supply-side reform of “de-capacity, destocking, deleveraging, cost reduction, and short-boardingâ€.
1. The Party Central Committee and the State Council attach great importance to the important role and mission of multi-level capital markets in the supply-side reform to promote economic transformation.
On December 18-21, 2015, the Central Economic Work Conference proposed “strengthening the supply-side structural reform†and repeatedly discussed the multi-level capital market in “de-capacity, de-stocking, deleveraging, cost reduction, and short-boardingâ€. The important role. It is proposed to "accelerate the reform of the financial system and form a stock market with complete financing functions, solid basic systems, effective market supervision, and adequate protection of the legitimate rights and interests of investors. We will promptly study and propose a reform plan for financial supervision systems" and "enlarge the proportion of direct financing". The capital market should cooperate with enterprise mergers and reorganizations to "support the technological transformation and equipment renewal of enterprises, reduce the debt burden of enterprises, innovate financial support methods, and improve the investment capacity of enterprises in technological transformation." "Strengthen all-round supervision, standardize various financing behaviors, and promptly carry out financial development. Special rectification of risks, resolutely curb the spread of illegal fund-raising, strengthen risk monitoring and early warning, properly handle risk cases, and resolutely hold the bottom line without systematic and regional risks."
On December 23, 2015, the State Council executive meeting “determined measures to further significantly increase the proportion of direct financing and improve the economic efficiency of financial services entitiesâ€. It is proposed to "intensify the reform of the financial system, optimize the financial structure, and actively develop direct financing, which is conducive to broadening investment and financing channels, reducing social financing costs and leverage ratio, promoting supply-side structural reform, supporting mass entrepreneurship, innovation, and promoting economic stability. .
The meeting determined that the first is to improve the multi-level capital markets such as stocks and bonds. Establish a strategic emerging board of the Shanghai Stock Exchange [microblogging] to support the financing of innovative and entrepreneurial enterprises. Improve relevant legal rules and promote the listing of special equity structure startup enterprises in China. Increase the number of listed companies in the national SME share transfer system, and research and launch the pilot to the GEM. Standardize the development of regional equity markets.
The second is to enrich direct financing tools. Actively develop project income bonds and convertible bonds, perpetual notes and other bonds and bonds, promote pilot projects for infrastructure asset securitization, and standardize the development of online lending. Simplify the approval of overseas financing of domestic enterprises. The third is to strengthen the supervision of credit rating agencies and accounting agencies, law firms and other intermediary agencies, study the cross-licensing of securities, funds and futures operating institutions, and steadily promote qualified financial institutions to apply for securities business licenses on the basis of risk isolation.
The fourth is to promote balanced development of investment and financing. Gradually expand the investment of insurance protection funds in the capital market, standardize the development of investment and financing functions such as trusts and bank wealth management, and develop private equity funds such as venture capital and angel investment. The fifth is to strengthen supervision and risk prevention, strengthen the construction of relevant systems, and resolutely crack down on financial fraud and illegal fund-raising in accordance with laws and regulations, and effectively protect the legitimate rights and interests of investors. â€
2. In the future, with the gradual adjustment of A-shares and the end of the bubble, the promotion of capital market reform will usher in important opportunities and time windows.
The fast-know fast bear is not conducive to the promotion of capital market reform, the risk is rising, and the opportunity is falling. With the gradual adjustment of A-shares and the end of the bubble, the market is gradually entering a normal state, valuations tend to be reasonable, and investors tend to be rational, which ushers in important opportunities and time windows for capital market reform.
In the process of promoting capital market reform, we should pay attention to the combination of theoretical reality, departmental coordination, policy coordination, and symmetrical innovation. Due to the fact that the investor structure is dominated by retail investors and the rule of law still needs to be improved, the game atmosphere is relatively strong, and the value investment concept needs to be disseminated. It is characteristic of a typical emerging market. Therefore, under the premise of marketization, major reforms such as the registration system must be Consider the reality of China.
Faced with the increasingly mixed financial development trend, cross-contagion between financial risks in various fields, to prevent fragmentation of regulatory functions, and promote the establishment of a unified and coordinated regulatory mechanism. The fiscal, monetary, and exchange rate policies have an important impact on the capital market. All departments should cooperate with each other. For example, after the first interest rate cut on November 21, 2014, A shares will rise sharply, and the reform of the registration system and stocks should be accelerated. The increase in supply; the sharp depreciation of the RMB exchange rate around January 4, 2015 triggered the pressure of capital outflows. A-shares could clear in advance the new rules for the major shareholders to lift the ban on January 8, and release the positive effects to hedge the related impact.
At present, under the A-share fund stock game environment, the promotion of registration system reform, strategic emerging board, etc. will cause concern about the increase in stock supply, and it may be considered to promote the acceptance of funds such as pensions entering the market.
3. Accelerate the formation of a stock market with complete financing functions, solid basic systems, effective market supervision, and adequate protection of investor rights, and promote economic transformation and upgrading.
In the future, we must vigorously develop high-end manufacturing, modern service industries and private small and medium-sized enterprises. These enterprises have the characteristics of high knowledge, high technology, high risk, light assets and lack of collateral. This is incompatible with the traditional banking-led financial system, and the financial structure. Backwardness has constrained the upgrading of the economic structure. In the future, we should vigorously develop multi-level capital markets and support the growth and development of emerging industries. Promote the reform of the registration system as a bull-and-loop project for the development of multi-level capital markets, to achieve market pricing, to engage in pre-regulation, to focus on post-event supervision, and to open and transparent the rule of law.
The one-step and thorough registration reform has higher requirements for the rule of law environment, post-event supervision, and delisting system. The implementation of the American-style registration system in the absence of relevant legal protection will make the capital market more serious. The money-selling game is completely predictable. From the perspective of the old country, it is recommended to adopt a gradual registration reform, go one step ahead, first reduce the profit threshold of the listing, moderate expansion but still have rhythm control, the review subject is delegated to the exchange, and the exchange has registered documents. The complete consistency of comprehensibility is reviewed, and major safeguard systems such as post-event supervision, class action system, fraudulent punishment and delisting system are gradually established.
4. Vigorously promote asset securitization and resolve financial risks
Resolving financial risks is a key point in the reform of the supply-side structure. Vigorously promoting asset securitization will help revitalize corporate assets and resolve debt risks and liquidity risks. For example, ABS (credit asset securitization) is conducive to revitalizing credit assets, improving bank asset turnover and mitigating bank risks; REITs (real estate trust investment funds) are conducive to revitalizing real estate assets and mitigating real estate risks. Bank and real estate related risks are important aspects of China's financial risks.
5. Develop an open and inclusive multi-level capital market to reduce corporate financing costs
Improving the multi-level capital market, vigorously developing direct financing, lowering the threshold of equity financing, and innovating bond financing instruments are of great significance for broadening the financing channels of enterprises, especially SMEs, and effectively reducing the financing costs of SMEs.
6. Encourage the optimization and restructuring of the capital market to resolve backward production capacity.
Give full play to the channel role of the capital market in the process of enterprise optimization and restructuring, strengthen the property price pricing and trading functions of the capital market, broaden the financing channels for mergers and acquisitions, and enrich the payment methods for mergers and acquisitions. Respect the independent decision-making of enterprises, encourage all types of capital to participate in mergers and acquisitions fairly, break down market barriers and industry division, and realize the smooth transfer of company property rights and control rights across regions and sub-owners. Constructing an effective stock market exit mechanism, a bond default mechanism, and breaking the rigid exchange mechanism to reduce support for backward enterprises will help backward enterprises to withdraw from the market.
7. Relying on the capital market, relaxing access, introducing new investors, and accelerating the reform of administrative monopoly industries
In areas where administrative monopoly issues are prominent, such as oil and gas, electricity, telecommunications, railways, medical care, education, culture, sports, etc., relying on the capital market, introducing new investors, encouraging competition, helping to reduce costs and improve effectiveness.
8. Implement structural tax cuts and encourage innovation
During the economic recession, fish should be raised through tax reduction and release, especially for enterprises to increase investment in technological innovation, accelerate depreciation, and provide preferential taxation for VCPE. Protect property rights, stabilize entrepreneurial expectations, promote the flow of innovation factors, foster human capital, and build a financial system that encourages innovation.
9. Promote the reform of state-owned enterprises and increase the rate of asset securitization
The capital market will be an important force supporting the reform of state-owned enterprises. Promote the classification and supervision of state-owned enterprises, establish state-owned capital operation companies, pilot equity incentives and employee stock ownership, and realize the deep integration of state-owned enterprise asset securitization and mixed ownership.
10. While promoting the reform of the supply side, build a “complete network†of society and seize the bottom line of social stability.
Supply-side reform will have an impact on banks' bad, P2P, employment, etc. The solution is to divest debt restructuring, vigorously develop service industry, improve social security system, and improve unemployment relief.
3. With the supply-side reforms breaking through the ice, all sectors will have more confidence in the Chinese economic outlook.
With the supply-side reform breaking through the ice, all walks of life will have more confidence in the future of China's economic transformation. China will not fall into the Latin American middle-income trap. China has a huge real economy foundation, abundant human capital dividends, and rich innovation and entrepreneurship. The entrepreneurial team, which is fundamentally different from the resource-based Latin American countries, is more similar to Japan and South Korea, which have successfully achieved speed shifts and structural adjustments.
We are in a transitional era of 30 years of unchanging change, in a great era of change, a round of top-down and bottom-up changes are being carried out on 9.6 million square kilometers of land, which is the mass entrepreneurship, the public Innovation provides a broad arena. We are convinced that the concept of a market economy has taken root in this country, and the new central leadership has demonstrated the courage and determination to promote reform. Reform is the biggest dividend, and reform is the only way out. Although the road is tortuous, although the process is accompanied by pain, the Chinese economy after the reform and transformation will have a brighter future.
(The author of this article: Guotai Junan Securities Research Institute Managing Director, Chief Macro Analyst, China Finance 40 People Forum invited researcher, China New Supply 50 Forum Forum, Renmin University of China part-time researcher, etc.. Previously served as the Macro Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council. Deputy Director of the Research Office.)
How to carry out supply side reform in the capital market
Abstract Abstract: The Party Central Committee and the State Council attach great importance to the important role and mission of multi-level capital markets in the supply-side reform to promote economic transformation. In 2015, the Central Economic Work Conference proposed “strengthening the structural reform of the supply sideâ€, and more...
Abstract: The Party Central Committee and the State Council attach great importance to the important role and mission of multi-level capital markets in the supply-side reform to promote economic transformation. In 2015, the Central Economic Work Conference proposed “strengthening the structural reform of the supply side†and repeatedly discussed the important role of the multi-level capital market in “de-capacity, destocking, deleveraging, cost reduction, and short-boardingâ€. On December 23, 2015, the State Council executive meeting “determined measures to further significantly increase the proportion of direct financing and improve the economic efficiency of financial services entitiesâ€.