Iron ore bottomed out and rebounded 33% later or faced with a callback

After the double holidays, the price of iron ore rose for several consecutive days. As of October 10, 61.5% of Australian PB powder prices were reported at US$117/ton, up by US$11/ton from September 29. It is mentioned that on October 9, Platts' 62% Australian iron ore price index rose sharply and it stood at 120 US dollars/ton.

However, analysts pointed out that the current upward trend in iron ore prices, mainly due to the impact of good news stimulus, actual transactions and demand are still weak, and it is expected that iron ore resources will gradually arrive in Hong Kong later, for this reason, the iron ore market trend in the latter part Still difficult to be optimistic.

The iron ore market experienced a big drop in July and August. On September 6th, the 61.5% Australian PB powder price index of “my steel net” hit a record low of US$88/ton during the year.

However, since the beginning of September, the iron ore market is similar to the downstream steel market and there has been a strong rebound. As of October 10, the index has risen to US$117/ton. That is, within a month, the iron ore price index has risen by US$29/ton, an increase of 33%.

The strong performance of the iron ore market has benefited from the strong rebound in downstream steel prices, as well as the stimulus from the Development and Reform Commission's approval of trillions of projects and the introduction of quantitative easing policies by foreign economies.

The data shows that since the beginning of September, the steel market has ushered in the largest wave of gains this year. As of October 10, steel varieties have generally risen by 300-500 yuan/ton. On October 11th, Sha Steel, the representative of East China Construction Steel and Steel Company, introduced the price policy in mid-October and raised the ex-factory price of rebar, high wire and coil to RMB 100-150/ton. According to this, Sha Steel has been continuously for three consecutive days. The price of building materials was raised in an all-round manner, in which the cumulative increase in rebar prices was as high as 300 yuan/ton.

As for the continuity of ore price upwards, Yu Chen expressed concern that he believes that the ore resources purchased by former steel mills at low prices will arrive later in Hong Kong, and the increase in supply may cause the market price of iron ore to stabilize or even decline. .

According to "My Steel Net" statistics, as of September 29, the total inventory of iron ore in the 30 major ports across the country was 94.68 million tons, which was a decrease of 3.5 million tons compared with 98.18 million tons on August 31. The month fell 3.5%.

However, in terms of domestic mines, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, China’s iron ore production in August was 116.569 million tons, an increase of 1.108 million tons from July, an increase of 0.96% from the previous month and an increase of 10.4% year-on-year; the first 8 months of the year The cumulative production in China was 839.023 million tons, a cumulative increase of 16.1% over the same period of last year.