Taizhou Fengye Metal Products Co., Ltd. , https://www.fyhandware.com
As the temperature continues to drop, the demand for glass terminals also continues to decrease, and it is expected that it will be difficult to reverse in a short time. However, due to the increasing use of glass in many entertainment venues and public facilities, the demand for glass is not too pessimistic.
Glass ** listed the first week, the market fluctuates, the market participation enthusiasm is high, and the willingness to pursue funds is strong. Glass ** listed on the first day, most of the goods received **, while the glass ** main 1305 contract contrarian sharply lower, approaching the first day of the daily limit board, becoming the leading losers of the day. On the second day, the volume of the main contract exceeded one million hands, and the open interest rate remained at 150,000, much higher than the previously listed coke, methanol, and silver**. The third trading day rebounded strongly. After that, the two trading days remained above 1,300 yuan/ton, which attracted a lot of funds to actively participate.
The cost support is weak and the downstream demand is sluggish. The previous period of soda uptake in the glass experienced a slight upward process, mainly due to the lower operating rate of the plant, which was maintained at 70 to 80 percent, but with the successive opening of the equipment in the later period and the low demand for downstream glass. It is difficult to alleviate the state in the short term, and the price of soda ash may be difficult to improve. In addition, the recent restart of some refinery installations, the operating rate has rebounded, and the supply of heavy oil in the market has increased. In addition, international crude oil prices have also been hovering at low levels in the recent past, which has dragged heavy oil prices to a certain extent. Heavy oil prices will continue to be under pressure in the latter part of the year. In short, the current cost support for glass is still weak.
The downstream real estate market continues to be strictly controlled and the turnover is not optimistic. As various uncertainties still exist, the capital pressure of the housing enterprises is relatively high, and many companies find it difficult to grasp the market outlook. At present, the overall speed of real estate development and construction has slowed down. Although the volume of transactions in multiple cities has picked up in the fourth quarter, stocks have steadily declined. In addition, the recent domestic macroeconomic data is positive, indicating that our economy is stabilizing and bottoming out. With the continued development of urbanization in China, the glass market will recover in the medium to long term, but the short-term effects will be limited, and the glass industry will continue to be in a downturn.
Overcapacity, maintaining high inventory At present, China's glass industry as a whole overcapacity, glass prices continued to slump, glass companies to suspend part of the production line, in October China's flat glass production was 58.41 million weight cases, down 4.9% from the same period last year, but before 2012 The total production volume of flat glass for the ten months was approximately 590 million weight boxes. By the end of November, the total inventory level of float glass in China had reached 26.93 million weight boxes, a month-on-month increase of 0.45%, and inventory levels remained high.
It is understood that most of the current glass companies are in a state of loss, and the production line's ignition kinetic energy is seriously insufficient. Most manufacturers wait and see waiting for the market to turn for the better. Coupled with the winter real estate construction industry has entered a period of downtime, making the original glass industry in the off-season demand worse.
Premiums and discounts affect the price of the trend to face the macroeconomic downturn environment, the glass market full of kinetic energy. At present, the spot price of float glass in East China remains at 1480 yuan/ton, and the main contract price of glass **1305 is already more than 150 yuan/ton lower than the spot price. In 2012, the largest fluctuation in the annual price of East China market glass is only 200 yuan/year. Ton. According to relevant statistics, in most years, the prices in May are at or slightly higher than the prices in December. Therefore, such a large premium is not in line with historical experience. The fluctuation of premiums and discounts in later years will affect the trend of glass prices to some extent. .
In short, as the weather turns cold, the end demand for glass is shrinking dramatically, and the state of the glass slump is unlikely to change in the short term. However, in the process of urbanization, real estate demand growth is still the fastest project in China's fixed assets investment, and glass is gradually used in public construction and decoration of entertainment venues. Therefore, the demand for glass should not be overly pessimistic.