Full Color Series-Color,Color Pvb Film Acoustic,Eva Film For Laminated Glass,Ethylene Vinyl Acetate Film HUAKAI FENGSHI TECHNOLOGY (CHONGQING) CO., LTD. , https://www.cqhkpvb.com
Since the beginning of this year, the foreign trade situation has been facing a severe test. The growth rate of import and export has been showing a negative growth trend. However, this situation is expected to improve in August, especially the export growth rate is expected to improve significantly.
Although the agency generally predicts that the export growth rate will still be negative growth in August, the decline will be greatly narrowed in August compared with the growth rate of -8.3% in July.
The National Development and Reform Commission released a more optimistic forecast after investigation. It wrote in the official website yesterday that “some key regions and many export-oriented enterprises have obviously improved their exports in August, and it is expected to achieve positive growth throughout the month.â€
Due to the obvious increase in prices of pork, vegetables and eggs, institutions generally believe that the August CPI will continue to rebound from the 1.6% in July, with a year-on-year increase of around 1.9%. At the same time, due to the continued decline in the market price of major production materials, the PPI decline continued, and the year-on-year decline in August is expected to further expand from last month.
"The continued negative growth of PPI has brought about industrial deflationary pressure, but at the same time it is also accelerating the transformation of industrial structure." Liu Xuezhi, a senior researcher at the Bank of Communications Research Center, said in an interview with the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
Evidence of accelerated structural transformation can be seen in the August economic indicators. According to statistics from the Bureau of Statistics, the PMI of the high-tech manufacturing industry and the PMI of the consumer goods-related industries continued to expand in August, but the overall PMI fell below the line of glory in the same period.
The published industrial production forward-looking data, such as PMI, is not good, but it does not prevent the market from optimistic about the stabilization of industrial production.
Zhang Jun, head of macroeconomic research at Morgan Stanley Huaxin Securities, told the Shanghai Securities Journal that “the impact of the one-off factor on the fall of PMI in August does not necessarily reflect the real situation of industrial production. The national industrial electricity consumption and railway freight traffic in August High-frequency data such as steel prices and output have seen a sequential increase and a year-on-year decline in the year-on-year decline, indicating that industrial production has shown some stability."
Institutions generally predict that the industrial added value will increase sharply in August compared with the previous month. The Bank of Communications Financial Research Center predicts that the data is expected to rise to 7%. If so, this growth rate will refresh the new high for the year.
The growth rate of consumption has maintained steady growth since this year. The chief economist of the Bank of Communications, Lian Ping [Weibo] said in an interview with the Shanghai Stock Exchange that “the growth rate of consumption will rebound in August, and the growth rate of consumption in the fourth quarter will accelerate. A big stimulus comes from the boost of real estate activity on consumption."
Since the second half of the year, the real estate market has continued to pick up. The real estate sales area and sales volume announced by the Bureau of Statistics in the past two months have continued to rise. The latest monitoring of the China Index Research Institute [microblogging] also confirmed the judgment of the property market to pick up. In August, the average price of new residential buildings in 100 cities nationwide was 10,787 yuan / square meter, up 0.15% year-on-year. After the 10 consecutive months of decline, it fell for the first time.
“Real estate investment is still at the bottom, but it is expected to stabilize in the fourth quarter, and even pick up.†Lian Ping said.
From the current institutional forecast, investment in August also showed signs of stabilization. The macro research team of Shenwan Hongyuan Securities believes that the cumulative growth rate of investment from January to August may rebound to 11.3%. This forecast is based on the recovery of infrastructure investment and the stabilization of manufacturing investment.
The important role of infrastructure investment in the second half of the year is steady growth. Recently, the government-sponsored special financial bonds, local debt replacement quotas and new local debt issuance quotas have all laid the groundwork for local government financing. It is expected that government-led infrastructure investment will officially accelerate in the fourth quarter. Lian Ping believes that “the future infrastructure growth rate is expected to exceed 20%.â€
Despite the poor performance of some economic indicators, the data on investment, consumption, exports and industrial production growth are improving, and the situation of stabilization in economic fluctuations has not changed.
Lian Ping said, "With the gradual effect of the steady growth policy, the economy is stable in the third quarter and the possibility of a rebound in the fourth quarter is very high. There is no problem in achieving the 7% target for the whole year. If it is good, it may reach 7.1%."
Macro data is intensively released this week, and the economy stabilized in August.
The main macroeconomic data in August will be released intensively this week. The General Administration of Customs will release import and export data on Tuesday. On Thursday, the National Bureau of Statistics will release CPI and PPI data, and on Sunday will release the investment, consumption and industrial added value on August. And other data. From the current institutional forecast, 8...
The main macroeconomic data for August will be released intensively this week. The General Administration of Customs will release import and export data on Tuesday. On Thursday, the National Bureau of Statistics will release CPI and PPI data. On Sunday, it will release investment, consumption and industrial added value in August. data. Judging from current institutional forecasts, important macro indicators such as exports, investment, consumption and industrial production will show signs of improvement in August, and the economy will stabilize in fluctuations.