New energy technology progress is more important than scale expansion

Wang Xiaotao, a reporter of the newspaper, “One wants to change the way of bidding at low prices; Second, we must strengthen the cooperation between central enterprises and private enterprises; Third, we must establish and improve the subsidy mechanism; Fourth, we must guarantee investment funds through financial innovation.” Recently, China New Energy held by CCID Consulting. At the conference of Industry Map *** (2011) (hereinafter referred to as “***”), Wang Xiaoning, general manager of the new energy division of CCID Consulting Energy Consulting Center, put forward four suggestions for the development of China's photovoltaic industry.

CCID Consulting's Energy Industry Research Center believes that the foundation of purely industrial scale expansion driven solely by policy subsidies is not stable, and the purpose of policy development in the early stage of industrial development should be the core competitiveness of the medium for technological advancement, rather than the expansion of industrial scale. . Economies of scale are premised on the maturity of technology, and the scale without core technology and effectiveness may only be “uneconomic”. The new energy industry is a capital-intensive industry, and it is a technology-intensive industry. Therefore, new energy sources can only expand industrial scale on the basis of technological progress.

At the preliminary formation conference of China's new energy industry cluster, Lu Yuan, a senior consultant of CCID Consulting's Energy Industry Research Center, interpreted the industrial layout of China's new energy industry. He said: "Policies and resources are important factors influencing the distribution of China's new energy industry. Under the influence of regional policies and resource endowments, the characteristics of China's new energy industry agglomeration appear, and the initial formation of the Bohai Sea, the Yangtze River Delta, the Southwest, the Northwest, etc. In the core new energy industry cluster area, the new energy industry in each agglomeration area has developed rapidly and has distinctive features."

"***" describes the specific situation of several major new energy industry clusters in China as follows:

The Yangtze River Delta region includes Jiangsu, Shanghai, Zhejiang and other provinces and cities. It is a highland for the development of new energy industries in China. It aggregates about one-third of the country’s new energy production capacity, and concentrates 60% of China’s photovoltaic industry and more than 20% of wind power equipment manufacturing. Enterprises, 53.5% of installed nuclear power plants and nearly 40% of biomass power generation installed capacity.

The Bohai Rim region includes Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Liaoning, Shandong and other provinces and cities. It has a strong R&D strength and equipment manufacturing base. It is an important research and development and equipment manufacturing base for China’s new energy industry, which has gathered about 30% of China’s Wind power equipment manufacturing company.

The northwest region mainly includes provinces and autonomous regions such as Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia and Gansu, and is an important new energy project construction base in China. The region is rich in wind energy and solar energy resources. It is a concentrated area for large-scale wind power and solar photovoltaic power generation projects. It gathers more than 90% of wind power projects and solar photovoltaic power generation projects in China, and the country proposes to build 7 million kilowatt-class wind power bases. Half is distributed in the northwest.

The southwest region includes Sichuan, Chongqing and other provinces and cities. Relying on its abundant resources and heavy industry foundation, it is an important silicon material base and nuclear power equipment manufacturing base in China. Among them, Sichuan has concentrated 30% of the country's polysilicon production capacity and 20% of its output value, occupying 50% of the core equipment of nuclear power nuclear islands in China.

China's new energy industry spatial layout presents three major trends, “***” believes that in the future China's new energy industry will show the following three major trends in the spatial layout evolution:

First, the industry as a whole continues to gather in areas of policy and resource advantages.

The new energy industry is in a period of growth in China, and the industrial agglomeration area is affected by the conditions of regional government policies and local resources. First, the new energy industry is a typical policy-oriented industry. In addition to national industrial policies, local supporting industrial policies will become an important factor in attracting enterprises. Secondly, natural resources, mineral resources, and human resources are also indispensable elements of the development of new energy industries. To build new energy projects, companies need to select regions with abundant resources according to the characteristics of the subdivision of new energy industries. Finally, with the development of new energy industries, reducing costs has become one of the major tasks for business development. New energy companies will consider the impact of factors such as industrial radius and raw materials on costs.

Considering comprehensively the characteristics and development trends of new energy industries, in the overall view, in the next 3 to 5 years, the new energy industry in China will continue to focus on policy support and resource-rich regions in terms of spatial distribution.

Second, the large-scale new energy equipment manufacturing industry continues to shift toward the market terminal. In addition to being attracted by regional policies and local resource factors, the manufacturing of large-scale new energy equipment in China is an important factor for companies to consider. For example, the manufacturing process of large-scale wind power equipment, including blades and complete machine manufacturing, will have a significant impact on the industrial cost. At the same time, close to the terminal market, in addition to convenient transportation, it is also conducive to the operation and maintenance of the equipment in the later period. In the future, the manufacturing process of large-scale new energy equipment will continue to shift to market application terminals, including the northwest and southwest regions with abundant wind and solar energy resources, in order to reduce costs and meet customers' operational and maintenance needs.

Third, R&D and sales are concentrated in capital and talent-intensive regions. New energy industry research and development conditions require excellent human resources, advanced experimental facilities, and a large amount of capital investment as a support. At present, many domestic new energy companies have gradually increased their research and development capabilities to R&D centers in areas with dense human resources and well-developed infrastructure.

In the marketing segment, some new energy areas in China are also gradually facing overseas markets. Areas such as Beijing and Shanghai that have a wide area of ​​radiation and strong international capabilities will become the choice for new energy companies to set up marketing centers.

Demonstration Projects to Demonstrate Specific Targets According to Wang Xiaoning, from 2008 to 2010, the proportion of newly added grid-connected wind power in China was 75.72%, 65%, and 73.90%, respectively, and the cumulative grid-connected ratios were 74.38%, 62.50%, and 69.46 respectively. %. “Wind power grid-connected power generation accounts for only 0.7% of the total power generation in the country,” Wang Xiaoning said directly. “The problems that wind power appears in reality show that China’s large-scale wind power demonstration projects are not doing enough!”

CCID Consulting's Energy Industry Research Center believes that the technical development and scale expansion of China's wind power industry have largely solved the problem of cost. However, the technical foundation has not been consolidated, leading to the emergence of some problems. To strengthen the construction of new energy demonstration projects, we must implement demonstration benefits in terms of technology, management, operation, etc., and set up demonstration indicators to avoid problems such as quality and operation in the later stage of the large-scale construction of new energy projects.

Wang Xiaoning said: “To build a large-scale demonstration project for new energy, we must use indicators and technologies to measure it. This is truly meaningful.”

In addition, CCID Consulting's Energy Industry Research Center believes that we need to further improve the mechanism. For example, at present, China’s new energy power generation quota system follows the “renewable energy medium- and long-term development plan” and requires the total installed capacity of non-hydro renewable energy power generation owned by investors with total installed capacity of 5 million kilowatts of equity power generation. By 2010 and 2020, it should reach 3% and 8% of the total installed capacity of its equity power generation. The plan only imposes restrictions on power generation companies and how the downstream power grid companies purchase new energy power generation capacity, resulting in the emergence of power grids that are reluctant to acquire new energy power generation, and that new energy sources cannot be connected to the grid. Wang Xiaoning said: "In fact, in the development of new energy power, in addition to power generation companies, power grid companies should also take up their own responsibilities." CCID Consulting's Energy Industry Research Center suggested that in order to solve the problem of new energy grid connection, the country needs The new energy generation quota system for power generation companies and power grid companies will be introduced as soon as possible.

According to the forecast of CCID Consulting’s Energy Industry Research Center, from 2011 to 2015, China’s wind power will enter a period of stable development. The wind power industry will focus on wind power grid-connected installations and safe operation of wind power projects; in the next 3 to 5 years, China will become one of the fastest growing countries in the global PV market. The focus of China's PV industry competition will shift from upstream manufacturing to downstream market applications.

For some of the provisions in bidding for photovoltaic projects, Wang Xiaoning also put forward individual opinions. She believes that due to the requirement for bidders to have 5 million yuan deposits, 30% of their own funds, 10% of the project capital, this is equal to a large number of private enterprises. "The emergence of central enterprises to replace Suntech and Yingli's Commonwealth has begun to appear," Wang Xiaoning said. She said that cooperation between the central and private enterprises in the photovoltaic industry should be strengthened and the "national" and "people" alliance will be the main theme in the future photovoltaic market construction.

Wang Xiaoning also holds an objection to the low-cost winning bid for photovoltaic projects. She said: "There should be a scope for low-cost bids for PV projects. The rate of decline in bids requires a process. Last year, more than 1 yuan per kilowatt-hour, this year was 0.69 yuan per kilowatt-hour, and the year actually dropped by 1/3, I think It should be considered comprehensively when awarding."