New pricing mechanism for oil prices may be introduced or shortened by the end of the year

Domestic oil prices will rise again in the early morning of the 11th, and oil prices in some regions will return to the “8-year era”. From the "two consecutive upswings" to the "three consecutive falls" to the "two ups and downs", the seven oil price adjustments during the year were both significantly more frequent and more timely than those in the past. According to industry analysts, if the domestic CPI continues to operate at a low level and the trend of international oil prices stabilizes, the new oil product pricing mechanism is expected to be introduced at the end of the year.

First, the oil price repeats "two consecutive rises" during the year.

The National Development and Reform Commission announced on the evening of the 10th that the price of refined oil will be raised from midnight on the 11th, and the increase will be 550 yuan/ton for gasoline and 540 yuan/ton for diesel. The price adjustment meets market expectations.

The 10th is the 22nd working day after the last price adjustment day (August 10th). Xinhua News Agency oil price data released on the 10th showed that as of the 7th, the three places (Dubai, Brent, Xinta) crude oil moving average rate of change was 8.37%. According to the current "Petroleum Prices Management Measures (Trial)", when the average price of crude oil in the international market changes more than 4% for 22 consecutive working days, domestic refined oil prices can be adjusted accordingly.

The price adjustment is the fourth time that domestic oil prices have been raised. After the price adjustment, the decline in the "three consecutive losses" has basically been offset, and the oil price has exceeded the level in February.

Second, the price adjustment "became timely"

“The adjustment of oil prices has become timely.” This is a direct observation of many oil industry participants regarding the previous adjustment of oil prices this year. The interval of seven oil price adjustments during the year is about one month, and both are adjusted after the “22 days+4%” condition is met. The example of funding is that several market institutions continuously and accurately predict the time for price adjustment.

Judging from the number of times, the adjustment of oil prices this year is also more frequent than in previous years. In 2011, the domestic oil price has been adjusted 3 times. In 2010 and 2009, it was adjusted 4 times and 8 times respectively. In the first 9 months of this year, it has been adjusted 7 times.

The extent of domestic product oil price adjustment has been questioned as “more or less,” and experts analyzed: “Several price adjustments this year, whether it is adjusted or adjusted, are generally in place. The demanders and users are more sensitive to high oil prices, so there are doubts about rising or falling."

3. Will the new mechanism be introduced during the year?

Compared with the price adjustment node, market participants are more concerned about the timing of the new product price formation mechanism. Peng Sen, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, previously said that this year it is necessary to choose the launch of the reform program for refined oil prices, shorten the price adjustment cycle, improve the price adjustment operation, and improve the transparency of the operation of the mechanism; the new oil pricing mechanism must be stable or fall in the oil price Introduced.

This year’s very timely price adjustments have been considered by the industry insiders to pave the way for the introduction of new pricing mechanisms. Yao Daming, minister of the oil and gas division of the Guangdong Oil & Gas Association, believes that as of this year's price adjustment, domestic gasoline prices have risen by 560 yuan/ton, and diesel has risen by 590 yuan/ton. In terms of proportion, the increase in international oil prices is somewhat higher. One of the reasons for this is the filling of gaps in the external disk that continued to rise in the second half of last year and the country’s long-term unadjusted gap. On the other hand, it is the basis for the introduction of the new price adjustment mechanism in the second half of the year. prepare.

At the same time, the low-level operation of the domestic CPI is also seen as the introduction of a favorable new mechanism. Industry insiders said that if the new mechanism is introduced within a certain period of time, it may be time to choose the fourth quarter.

There are also industry insiders believe that there are still variables in the introduction of new pricing mechanisms during the year. "The best time for the introduction of the new mechanism has passed, and that is when the "three consecutive falls" in the first half of the year." Lu Bin said.

IV. Detailed Explanation of Oil Price Management Measures According to the “Petroleum Prices Management Measures (Trial)” promulgated by the National Development and Reform Commission in May 2009, crude oil prices are set by companies with reference to international market prices. When crude oil in the international market changes for more than 4% for a period of 22 consecutive working days, domestic refined oil prices may be adjusted accordingly.

According to the measures, the price of mutual supply of crude oil between China Petroleum and Chemical Corporation and China National Petroleum Corporation is negotiated between the purchase and sales parties based on the principle that the cost of domestically produced onshore crude oil delivered to the refinery is equivalent to the cost of importing crude oil from the international market to the factory. The prices of crude oil used by Sinopec and PetroChina for local refineries are determined by reference to the mutual supply prices between the two group companies. The prices of crude oil produced by China National Offshore Oil Corporation and other companies are set by enterprises on the basis of international market prices.

Differences in the prices of refined oil products are subject to government guidance or government pricing. (a) The retail price and wholesale price of gasoline and diesel, and the supply price of gasoline and diesel to the special users of social wholesale enterprises, railways, transportation, etc., shall be guided by the government; (b) The national reserves and the supply prices of gasoline and diesel for Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps; And the pricing of aviation gasoline and aviation kerosene is subject to government pricing.