PetroChina Economic and Technical Research Institute: China's natural gas demand may reach 500 billion square meters in 2030

At the “2012 Research Institute-China Think Tank Forum” held on February 28, Xu Yongfa, President of the China National Petroleum Corporation’s Institute of Economics and Technology, stated that China’s natural gas market is in strong demand and consumption patterns are gradually driven by supply-driven consumption to demand. Change in consumption patterns. According to the forecast of the China National Petroleum Corporation’s Institute of Economics and Technology, under the baseline scenario, China’s natural gas demand will grow at an average annual rate of 8% by 2030. In 2015, 2020 and 2030, the demand for natural gas will be 230 billion, 350 billion and 500 billion yuan respectively. cubic meter. In the context of clean low-carbon development, the demand for natural gas will increase by 8.5% annually before 2030, and the demand for natural gas in 2015, 2020 and 2030 will be 260 billion, 400 billion and 550 billion cubic meters respectively. Under the extensive scenario, 2030 The average annual growth in demand for natural gas is also 6.8%, and the demand for natural gas in 2015, 2020 and 2030 is 2000, 2800, and 400 billion cubic meters respectively.

According to Xu Yongfa, in the above three scenarios, if the baseline scenario is used, the proportion of natural gas in China's primary energy consumption structure will reach 8%, 10%, and 12% in 2015, 2020, and 2030, respectively. The proportion is very significant. Natural gas will become the main energy source in our country. Besides playing an important supporting role in meeting China's growing energy demand, it will also promote the optimization of energy structure and energy conservation and emission reduction in China.

According to Xu Yongfa, the comparative analysis shows that in 2020, the share of natural gas in China's primary energy consumption structure, if it accounts for 10%, can replace 650 million tons of coal. According to statistics, since China’s West-East Gas Pipeline was put into operation, a total of 81 billion cubic meters of gas has been transferred, equivalent to 150 million tons of alternative coal, 110 million tons of CO2 emissions, 1.8 million tons of CO2 emissions, and 1.8 million tons of dust. With 1 million tons of nitrogen oxides, natural gas is closely associated with chemical, power, building materials, and transportation industries. The development of the weather will effectively stimulate the sustainable development of these industries.

It is expected that China's natural gas production is expected to exceed 200 billion cubic meters in 2020, and will be calculated on the basis of thermal equivalence, which will be approximately equal to the projected domestic oil production. After 2020, it is also expected to continue to grow beyond oil and become China's second largest fossil energy source.