Refined oil prices are expected to increase

After the “October” holiday, the price reduction of refined oil is expected to increase, and gas stations around the country have set off an upsurge of discount sales. As of October 9th, the number of petrol stations in Beijing has reached a price reduction of 310, accounting for 26% of the total number of gas stations in the city, which has hit a record high since the beginning of the year. As of October 8, there were 153 gas stations that were discounted and promoted in Shanghai. It accounted for 14% of the total and also hit a new high this year. The price cuts between the two places are between 0.01 and 0.6 yuan/liter.

As the price of refined oil products is expected to increase, after the long holiday is over, the discount of gas stations suddenly increases. Even Sinopec gas stations, which have been seldom involved in discount sales, have begun to add more discounts.

Since the price increase of domestic refined oil products on September 11th, international oil prices have started to fluctuate. On October 9, the average price of crude oil in Xinta, Dubai, and Brent DTD was US$111.182 per barrel, and the average price in the past 22 days was US$110.973 per barrel, which was a 2.07% decrease from the benchmark price on September 7. If the international oil price continues to decline, the rate of change in the three places is expected to reach 4% by the end of the month, and the refined oil price adjustment window will also be opened.

At the same time that gas station discounts and promotions have reached a climax, CNPC and Sinopec’s refined oil wholesale companies are also facing difficulties in slow sales. After the price adjustment in September, the refined oil consumer terminals mostly digested the inventory. PetroChina and Sinopec’s refined oil sales companies had a poor shipment. About 80% of the wholesale sales companies did not complete their sales tasks in September.

After entering the month of October, the sales pressure of "two barrels of oil" has not diminished. Chen Qing said that due to the possibility of a downward revision in domestic oil prices, the end-user attitude of refined oil customers will increase, and the demand for social speculation will drop to a low level. Coupled with the increase in refinery production, there may be an oversupply situation in the market.