February 22, 2025

The central bank once again lowered the deposit rate by 0.5 percentage points over the weekend.

The central bank lowered the RRR by 0.5 percentage points on the evening of May 12, 2012, and will begin implementation on May 18. According to market forecasts, this means that nearly 500 billion yuan of liquidity will be released to the market. This is the second time the central bank cut the RRR in this year, and it was lowered for the first time in nearly three months from February 24 this year. And this time the central bank's action, I am afraid to let some people in the industry who predicted to reduce in June to be surprised. In fact, the central bank frequently reversed the repurchase operation this month, and each pen was tens of billions of dollars. In the past week, the central bank, which originally thought that it would not conduct a repurchase, did not intend to repurchase 20 billion yuan to release liquidity. This move made the market feel loose. It is precisely because of this that some analysts have said that the expected cooling of the central bank's re-adjustment may be pushed to June. However, the central bank this time “does not follow the common sense” and lowered the deposit rate in mid-May, but it was not unexpected. Yan Feng, an analyst at the Institute of International Finance of the Bank of China's Strategic Development Department, told reporters that this "unexpected" change stems from the recent "unsightly" economic data. According to data from the central bank, the increase in RMB loans in April was 681.8 billion yuan, far lower than the previous market expectations of 100 billion yuan, showing a weak growth state; the same unsatisfactory data also has industrial added value in April, this performance industry The year-on-year growth rate of the results of production activities of enterprises has dropped to single digits, which has become the slowest growth rate in the past three years, and it is also unexpected by the various institutions in the market. Analysts believe that the central bank chose to lower the reserve ratio shortly after the release of economic data in April, reflecting the current reality of weak economic performance. At this time, the reduction of the reserve ratio is a timely response to “stable growth”. "I originally thought that after the seasonal factors at the beginning of the year, there will be a trend of relatively stable economic development, but now it seems that the trend of economic decline continues." Yu Feng said that the central bank may also choose this because of concerns about "guarantee eight". When the deposit rate is lowered. In addition, since the beginning of this year, as one of the important factors affecting the high and low deposit rate, the growth of foreign exchange has also shown a weak trend, which is another condition for the RRR cut. The peak forecast is that although it has been the third RRR cut since the first RRR cut announced on November 30 last year, this indicator is still at a high level. He predicted that in the current state of China's economy, one or two RRR ratios will be lowered again during the year to maintain economic growth. In addition, Zhao Qingming, a financial expert, believes that although the current RRR cut can release certain funds to the market, the significance is not great. "I still advocate a rate cut, although it is unlikely to be seen now, but an asymmetric rate cut can bring more benefits to the real economy." He estimated that if the loan interest rate is lowered by 0.25 percentage points, it will solve the real economy. The cost of capital of 200 billion yuan. However, Zhao Qingming’s view has also been questioned by different experts. Tang Jianwei, an analyst at the Bank of Communications Financial Research Center, expressed concern about this: "After all, the price data recovered to 3.4% in April, and the negative interest rate disappeared. If the interest rate cuts at this time, it will cause the price to rebound again." The interest rate cut is a more drastic economic adjustment than the RRR cut. If the interest rate is cut, in addition to considering the price, it depends on whether the economic measures taken before have reached expectations.

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