February 22, 2025

The National Development and Reform Commission ordered 700 million tons of coal-fired price experts to say that electricity prices will not rise next year.

The CPI remains high, and the National Development and Reform Commission has repeatedly exerted its strength. This time, the "coal boss" with a rough financial position was solemnly "greeted." Yesterday, the reporter learned that the "Notice of the National Coal Production and Transportation Needs Connection Work in 2011" was finally issued, and more than 700 million tons of coal were greeted with a stable price. This is undoubtedly a helpless move in a special period, although it is inevitable It is questioned that the process of gradually letting go of coal prices has been suspended for a long time, and even a small step backwards.

It is worth noting that with more than 700 million tons of coal being demanded, the pressure on electricity prices that are frequently requested this year has been flooded. Experts said that it is certain that electricity prices will not rise sharply next year.

More than 700 million tons of coal were greeted
At 9:00 am today, Shenhua, China Coal, China's largest coal giant, and officials from China's largest coal-producing regions such as Shanxi, Inner Mongolia and Shandong will gather in Beijing's Haidian District.

China's largest coal industry association, China Coal Transportation and Marketing Association, told reporters that at this meeting, they will convey the guidance on the implementation of the 2011 coal production and transportation needs.

Yesterday, the reporter interviewed many parties confirmed: On December 6, the National Development and Reform Commission officially issued the "Notice on the 2011 National Coal Production and Transportation Needs Connection Work". According to the notice, the price of the “key coal contract” in 2011 remained stable with the previous year's level. The coal supply and demand enterprise is required to complete the contract negotiation within 25 days after the notice is issued.

Informed sources told reporters that the so-called key thermal coal contract is for the "framework within the scope of the contract", the so-called framework within the framework of the government's coordination, the Ministry of Railways to coordinate the arrangement of capacity contracts.

According to the notice, the contract volume in this year's framework exceeds 900 million tons, of which, the coal is about 700 million tons. Although this number is still about 20 million tons higher than last year, the amount of water-related increase of 200-300 million tons per year is really too much. In addition, the notice requires that both the supplier and the buyer independently negotiate pricing, and encourage both parties to sign long-term contracts and provide support in terms of capacity. In view of the fact that the main suppliers of key thermal coal contracts are central enterprises such as Datong and China Coal, this notification requirement will be basically implemented. Wu Jun, general manager of China Coal Energy Sales Co., said: "The NDRC is not asking for higher coal prices. As a coal company, we will definitely implement it."

The government eased the pressure on electricity prices
The government’s intention is to ease the pressure of rising electricity prices. It became the consensus of the industry on this notice yesterday. Among them, Xue Jing, director of the statistics department of China’s largest power company, China’s largest power company, told reporters: “Key contract The rise in coal prices has alleviated the pressure of rising electricity prices to some extent."

As the coal price rose and the electricity price was not in place, Xue Jing’s earlier investigation found that the five major power generation groups had a loss of 50%. It is reported that as of the end of October, among the more than 400 thermal power plants owned by the five major power generation groups, there were more than 200 loss-making power plants with a loss of 50%. Jiang Shaojun, secretary general of China Electric Power Development Promotion Association, said that this data may be expanded.

Xue Jing believes that the continuous increase in the price of coal has led to a rapid increase in fuel costs, which is the main cause of the overall loss of the thermal power business of the five major groups.

Yesterday, the China Electricity Council revealed that there are already power plants that can't afford coal because they have no money. Wei Chao, director of Shandong Jintai Huangtai Power Plant, said that due to rising coal prices, it is estimated that the annual loss will be more than 100 million yuan. Have to generate electricity. The plant is just a microcosm of many power plants such as Datang, Guodian and China Power Investment.

At this time, it is the peak of winter electricity consumption. Once a large area of ​​money-free coal purchase occurs, it will lead to the situation of power shortage in some areas in China last year. Under such circumstances, since the beginning of this year, the call for the rise in electricity prices by the China Electricity Council and the power companies has continued.

-debate
The doubts about the retrogression of reform and the helplessness of controlling inflation
The National Development and Reform Commission noticed that the industry was inhaling. Some people who asked not to be named questioned whether the government’s move was a retrogression of the coal price mechanism. It is reported that in the past few years, China's coal pricing methods have been planned and semi-marketed all the way. In the past two years, the key contract coal was also completely released, and all the market was solved.

“It is a bit too much to say that the NDRC’s re-regulation of coal prices is a retrogression in reform.” Li Ting, a coal industry analyst at the China Merchants Productivity Promotion Center, told reporters: “I think this is a helpless move and emergency measures for the government in a special period. In order to control the cost of power generation enterprises from the source, reduce the pressure on electricity prices to increase inflation, and suppress inflation." Informed sources told reporters that the government should manage key coal prices, precisely because of the current task of stabilizing the overall price level and managing inflation expectations. Once the price of coal rises, the price of electricity will rise. Because electricity is widely used by residents, commerce, and industry, it will cause a chain rise in prices.

-prediction
Experts say electricity prices will not rise next year
"It is certain that the electricity price will not rise sharply next year." Yesterday, for the change of electricity price next year, CLP Xue Jing gave reporters such a statement after comprehensive analysis.

In fact, after more than 700 million tons of key contract coal prices were charged, the change in thermal coal prices mainly depends on the changes in coal prices in the remaining markets. It is understood that the national coal consumption in 2009 was 3.07 billion tons, calculated according to the use of coal for 52% of the total coal consumption, the amount of coal used is about 1.6 billion tons. Then how will the remaining coal price of more than 900 million tons of electricity be changed? Xue Jing believes that whether the price of thermal coal will rise next year is related to market supply and demand, inflation, industrial restructuring, international coal price and even oil price. Similarly, the key contract coal price does not rise and cannot guarantee that the electricity price will not rise next year. The price does not rise to some extent, alleviating the pressure of rising electricity prices. What is certain is that electricity prices will not rise sharply next year.

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