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The realization of energy independence is a prerequisite for government support, but the improvement of the US “energy independence†trend is the result of a combination of factors such as the evolution of US energy supply and demand, technological progress and energy policy guidance over the past 50 years. In particular, the development of shale gas is a phased result on the road to energy independence, which has turned the US energy dependence into an inflection point, reversed the external dependence of US energy, and the advantages of shale gas rich and cheap, alleviating economic growth and resources. The contradiction between the shortcomings is of great significance to the return of the US manufacturing industry and economic recovery.
The academic community's discussion on US energy independence has become more intense after the 2008 financial crisis. Whether or not it recognizes the possibility of independent energy realization in the United States, it is an indisputable fact that energy production has increased and the trend of independence has increased. This trend is not only important for US energy and economic security, but also provides reference for energy development in countries around the world, especially in the case of declining fossil fuel reserves and increasing environmental pressure. In particular, the demand for energy has risen sharply and external dependence has gradually increased. China is more important and practical. This paper studies the evolution and achievements of the US energy independence policy, draws lessons and lessons from it, improves the scientific nature of China's energy policy, promotes energy production and energy structure optimization, and reduces energy dependence and economic vulnerability.
1. Evolution of the US "Energy Independence Policy"
“Energy independence†is simply to reduce the external dependence of energy, but it does not mean zero imports, but to increase domestic production, increase the energy self-sufficiency rate to ensure the independence of the domestic economy, and import control in the international energy market. It will not cause significant fluctuations in the domestic economy. At the same time, with increasing environmental pressure, the times have given new meaning to energy independence: developing new energy sources and adjusting energy structure are not constrained by other countries' energy conservation and emission reduction tasks.
Nixon's "Energy Independence Plan" officially opened the prelude to the United States to explore energy independence, but as early as World War II, the demand for war and the widespread use of oil in the transportation industry have made the United States increasingly dependent on foreign energy. According to WTO statistics, the energy trade deficit in 1974 reached 23.6 billion U.S. dollars, twice the net import of goods and goods that year. The increase in energy dependence has not only increased production costs, but also laid a time bomb for the US economy. Changes in international energy prices and production will inevitably affect the US economy. In 1973, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries imposed an oil embargo on the United States through a production reduction agreement. Oil prices in the international market soared fourfold. In the following year, industrial production in the United States fell by 14%, and the economic growth rate was -1.8%.
Two oil crises in the 1970s, during which the US government struggled to cope with the dilemma brought about by the crisis, and policy measures focused on reducing energy imports, maintaining domestic energy prices and production. Nixon took urgent measures to stabilize oil prices with oil price control as the main means. This government-led oil price system was extended in the Ford and Carter administrations, and tariffs on imported oil were reduced to reduce oil imports.
With the lifting of the crisis, the domestic energy market order has been restored, and the government's regulation has seriously distorted the healthy development of the energy market. The domestic energy market is isolated from the international people, resulting in higher industrial costs. The Reagan administration began the oil market reforms, advocating energy policies that dominate private supply while weakening government functions. In 1981, oil price control was lifted, and US oil prices began to fall by nearly 50% from the international market, but on the other hand, it also stimulated a sharp increase in imports.
The pressure of energy import dependence and the environmental problems brought about by fossil energy began to become more prominent in the 1990s. The United States regularly issued a national energy strategy, and gradually developed emergency measures to solve the energy crisis into a basis, a constraint, and a more scientific Long-term planning. Bush began to incorporate emerging energy industries with new energy as the core into the macro plan. After the financial crisis, the Obama administration took the transformation and development of the energy industry as the driving force for the US economic recovery. In 2009, Obama signed the US economic recovery and The Reinvestment Act will increase funding for new energy development and applications and tax incentives for new energy industries. After long-term development and accumulation, the United States has a large number of patented technologies for the development and utilization of new energy, which has led to an increase in domestic energy production and an increase in energy independence.
2. Results of the US Energy Independence Policy
2.1 The energy trade deficit is reduced, and the economic contribution rate of energy is rising.
In 1971, the US merchandise trade turned from a surplus to a deficit, and the deficit continued to expand, with the proportion of energy deficits expanding. Since the 1990s, the ratio of energy trade deficit to total trade deficit has been more than 20%, and the highest has reached 53%. The energy deficit and the trade deficit are highly consistent. Therefore, reducing the energy trade deficit can effectively improve the trade deficit. situation.
In the 21st century, the energy gap has increased rapidly, especially more than 60% of the total oil consumption needs to be imported. In 2008, the energy trade deficit accounted for 48% of the trade deficit, that is, nearly 1/2 of the trade deficit in the year came from the energy trade deficit. . To improve the trade deficit, it is necessary to increase domestic energy production and reduce imports. In 2005, Bush signed the "US Energy Policy Act" to transform the future US energy supply from relying mainly on foreign energy resources to increasing domestic energy supply, reducing energy dependence and saving energy [5] to strengthen domestic oil exploration and development. Including the development of oil and gas resources in the Alaska restricted area and the western United States, local oil and gas production increased, and the increase in supply directly led to price declines. For a long time, the United States, as a net importer of crude oil, most of the time, the spot price of crude oil in West Texas was reversed compared with the situation in Dubai and Brent. Both import volume and price have a simultaneous effect, and the energy trade deficit has decreased. In 2013, the energy trade deficit accounted for about one-third of the US trade deficit. At the same time, according to the calculation of the US Economic Advisory Board, the contribution rate of energy to the real GDP growth of the country has increased significantly, especially after 2012, exceeding 0.2%.
2.2 Energy self-sufficiency rate increases and economic independence increases
In the 1920s, when the United States entered the era of oil and gas discovery, oil quickly surpassed coal as the main source of energy. Since the United States became a net importer of oil in 1948, the US government’s strictly regulated energy policy has brought about a temporary increase in energy self-sufficiency. However, modern industry demands to improve the energy market. Reagan’s government’s energy market reform has made international low-cost oils inflow. Therefore, the US primary energy self-sufficiency rate continued to decline from 1982 to 2005, and reached its lowest point in 2005. 69%.
However, in the 21st century, the United States increased technology investment, development of new energy and exploration and exploitation of traditional oil and gas resources. In 2003, breakthroughs in shale gas mining technology, domestic oil and gas resources supply continued to increase, after the 2008 financial crisis, the United States strengthened domestic oil exploration. And development, including the Alaska restricted area and the western oil and gas resources, the local oil production accelerated, the average annual growth rate in 2008-2014 was 9.5%, the oil self-sufficiency rate rose from 35% to 62%; in 2009, natural gas production surpassed Russia to become First, the proportion of shale gas in total natural gas production increased from 1.6% in 1996 to 39.7% in 2013. Affected by the financial crisis in consumption, domestic primary energy consumption has shrunk. Therefore, after 2008, the growth rate of primary energy self-sufficiency in the United States has significantly accelerated.
Promoting the increase of energy production in the country is the only way to achieve energy independence. The conventional oil and gas resources in the United States are relatively insufficient. The breakthrough in shale gas and oil extraction technology and the comprehensive utilization of solar energy, wind energy and nuclear energy have increased energy supply. Increased domestic energy self-sufficiency rate.
2.3 Promote new energy development and cultivate consumer markets
US oil and natural gas consumption accounts for about 20% of the world's total consumption, reserves of natural gas accounts for 5.2%, and oil is less than 3%. Faced with huge energy demand gaps and environmental pressures, the future development direction of energy independence must be new energy. Renewability and cleanliness make new energy an ideal alternative. The development and utilization of new energy is receiving increasing attention. As Obama said, “the leader of the clean energy economy will become the country that leads the global economyâ€.
The development of new energy uses huge initial investment in research and development, and government support has become a key factor. In the 21st century, the US government has increased its support. In 2001, the National Energy Policy Report “Providing Reliable, Economic, and Environmentally-Friendly Energy to the Future of the United Statesâ€. In 2005, Bush signed the US Energy Policy Act to develop clean energy and improve energy efficiency. Focus. In 2009, Obama signed a total of $787 billion in the US Economic Renaissance and Reinvestment Act, in which projects related to the new energy technology revolution supported funding of $97 billion; investments in alternative energy research and development and energy conservation and emission reduction reached 60.7 billion. In the US dollar, the total investment in new energy such as solar energy and wind energy has exceeded 40 billion US dollars. This series of policies has achieved initial results. By 2014, renewable energy production reached 11% of total primary energy production, and this proportion is expected to continue to expand.
The development of new energy depends on the development of new energy consumption market. The United States, as the country with the largest number of car ownership in the world, has the most developed expressway, and the oil consumption in the transportation sector accounts for about 70% of the total oil consumption. Develop new energy vehicles to open up vast markets for new energy and reduce oil consumption. The Obama administration invested $2.4 billion in the industrialization of the plug-in hybrid vehicle in 2009; encouraged consumers to purchase energy-efficient cars with a tax credit of 700 billion US dollars, and enhanced the public's new energy consumption; the federal government purchased the three major US Automobile manufacturers make 17600 vehicles including energy-saving vehicles including new energy vehicles; provide low-interest loans to automobile manufacturing companies to help them carry out independent research and development and marketization of electric vehicles, and the sales share of new energy vehicles continues to expand.
3. Revelation and suggestions
3.1 Promoting the increase of local energy supply is the basis for achieving energy independence
The US energy independence policy has been explored for more than forty years, from the initial political and military means to ensure the diversification of energy supply channels to the return to local energy development and alternative energy production, thereby increasing economic independence. Breakthroughs in shale gas technology, Obama restarted nuclear construction programs, promoted the application of biofuels, solar energy, and hydropower development to diversify energy supply.
China's economic development has experienced a rapid period of entry into the new normal, and the demand for energy continues to grow. In the past decade, oil consumption has grown at an average annual rate of nearly 5%, reaching 12.4% of the world's total consumption. On the one hand, China's oil and gas reserves account for the world's reserves. Less than 2%, and some of the energy is buried deep, the environment is bad, mining is difficult, it is necessary to break the technical bottleneck to improve the exploration level and mining scale of China's oil and gas, increase energy supply; on the other hand, accelerate new energy development and application technology, develop alternative energy sources . China's energy consumption structure is characterized by more coal and less oil and gas. Other energy development is relatively lagging behind, especially the development and utilization of clean energy needs to accelerate the pace and promote the diversification of China's energy supply.
3.2 Formulating energy development plans is an institutional guarantee for achieving energy independence
The huge energy demand of the United States also contains the power to seek energy independence. The exploration of the road to energy independence is both a historical choice and a realistic requirement. It is expected that China will surpass the United States in 2030 and become the world's largest oil consumer. It will surpass Russia to become the second largest natural gas consumer by 2025. The energy gap will continue to expand, and external energy dependence will increase, increasing energy self-sufficiency and reducing economic vulnerability. Sex is a problem that China needs to solve, but the solution of the energy problem cannot be achieved overnight. The goal of energy development is established, relevant safeguard measures are formulated around the target, laws and regulations are improved, and long-term energy development plans are formed.
3.3 Energy development technology innovation is a necessary condition for energy independence
The United States has accumulated a large number of technology patents related to new energy, which not only promotes the increase of energy supply in the country, but also acquires intellectual property interests through technology export and maintains its competitive advantage and leading position in the world economy. Technological innovation has positive externalities. The technology spillover effect makes the development of new energy mining technology insufficient, and the investment cost in the previous period is high, the cycle is long, and it is difficult to achieve the desired effect by market regulation. Therefore, the government needs to increase R&D investment in the energy development stage. .
China's solar energy industry ranks first in the world, but there is a gap between technology and international level. The development of new energy sources such as wind energy, tidal energy and bioenergy is high, the scale is small, and the technical level needs to be improved. The progress of shale gas exploration is huge, but the mining potential is huge, but the mining technology lags behind, strengthens independent research and development, and breaks through the bottleneck of key technologies. Otherwise, relying on technology introduction will not only be the loss of economic benefits, but also hinder energy independence in the form of external technology dependence.
3.4 Respect the laws of the market, cultivating new energy consumption market is the only way to achieve energy independence
Consumption is the purpose and driving force of production. Only by cultivating new energy consumption market can we provide power for new energy production and realize new energy industrialization. At this stage, the development and utilization of new energy is more expensive than conventional energy, and it is difficult to develop due to market mechanism. Reducing the entry threshold of new energy production enterprises, giving tax incentives to new energy production enterprises, and consumer subsidies will help promote new energy production. The United States encourages the use of new energy vehicles, tax incentives and consumer subsidies. New energy vehicles are developing rapidly, with a market share of around 20%, opening up broad market prospects for new fuels such as biodiesel and hydrogen fuel.
At present, China's new energy production has initially developed, but its application is insufficient. Bio-energy started late, and the application of biodiesel and ethanol in hybrid vehicles is being promoted. The integration of wind power and solar power generation has progressed. Solar energy is developing rapidly but it is highly dependent on foreign markets. In 2009, 95% of China's solar photovoltaic production capacity exports, causing a large number of "double-reverse" investigations against China's photovoltaic equipment is not conducive to the healthy development of the new energy industry. Therefore, in order to open up the international market and base on the domestic market, we can provide sufficient power for the development of China's new energy industry.
The road to American energy independence is worth learning
The United States is the world's largest consumer of fossil energy. The long-term high-energy development model and consumption habits make the world's 4% of the population consume more than 20% of energy. Traditional oil and gas resources are relatively insufficient. Unconventional oil and gas resources, solar energy and wind energy, which are rich in reserves, have long relied on imports to make up for the energy gap due to technology and cost constraints, thus bringing economic vulnerability. This vulnerability is the first in the Middle East. The oil crisis was exposed, so Nixon proposed the “Energy Independence Planâ€. After long-term development and improvement, at this stage, a policy system with technological innovation to promote energy efficiency, new energy development as the core content, and complete system has been formed.