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Thoughts on Energy Security Brought by Strong Earthquakes in Japan
Japan’s strong earthquake “shocked†its own energy chain, and many refineries were temporarily shut down, resulting in a reduction of 1.2 million barrels of crude oil processing capacity per day, equivalent to about 1/4 of Japan’s total refining capacity, affecting the supply of gasoline and diesel and causing local "Oil shortage." Since nuclear power accounts for more than 35% of Japan's total power generation, the power supply is seriously undermined by the earthquake's damage to power facilities and leakage of nuclear power plants. At the same time, the impact of the earthquake on the energy industry has spread from Japan to the international market. The panic has caused abnormal fluctuations in the chemical market. The international oil price has fluctuated violently. In short, the earthquake in Japan coincided with a new round of geopolitical conflicts in the world and the high international oil price shocks, which undoubtedly triggered a global rethinking of energy security. Nuclear safety is a "secondary" topic of strong earthquakes in Japan. After the nuclear power plant leak, "anti-nuclear" demonstrations took place in many countries including Japan, and the fate of the world nuclear power industry is worrying. In fact, nuclear power accounts for a large share of energy strategy in Japan and major European and American countries. According to the data, nuclear power in the United States accounts for more than one-fifth of its total power generation. EU nuclear power currently accounts for about 35% of electricity production, while France's nuclear power ratio is as high as 75%. The International Atomic Energy Agency recently revealed that there are currently more than 400 nuclear power plants in operation worldwide, and 55 nuclear power plants under construction. Nuclear power accounts for 14% of the total global power generation. It can be seen that nuclear power has become an important support for the global energy structure and is unlikely to be easily abandoned. "The Obama administration will still develop nuclear energy as part of the US new energy plan." The White House spokesperson recently stated clearly that the Japanese nuclear leak could hinder the nuclear energy utilization process. This statement by the US government is consistent with its consistent policy of developing nuclear energy as an important means of addressing long-term energy supply. As a major energy importing country, Japan has been committed to the development of nuclear power as a "localized" energy source and has achieved important results. Therefore, Japan that has tasted the "benefit" of nuclear energy should not suspend the pace of nuclear energy utilization due to this incident. The most likely option is that Japan will move nuclear power more cautiously and at a “reasonable†rate of growth and raise nuclear safety to an unprecedented level. The nuclear leak in Japan is undoubtedly a warning and inspiration for the development of the nuclear power industry including China. “First of all, in addition to design, construction and operational safety, nuclear power needs to consider how to minimize losses if it is in case of a situation. Second, it is necessary to strengthen the popularization of public nuclear energy safety knowledge.†Director of Xiamen University Energy Economic Research Center Lin Boqiang believes. To compensate for the power supply gap caused by damage to nuclear power plants, Japan is seeking to temporarily replace nuclear power generation through oil power generation. Analysts pointed out that this will inevitably trigger the sensitive nerves of the international oil market. According to the analysis before the earthquake, Japan's oil demand will fall more than any other country this year, and the daily demand decline will be the lowest since 1980. However, the earthquake changed everything. An analyst at Deutsche Bank said in a research report that if Japan's GDP growth rate reaches 1.6% of the pre-earthquake forecast, then the increase in oil demand in the power industry will drive Japan's annual oil demand to increase by 0.9%, or 40 per day. About 10,000 barrels. This will bring Japan's oil consumption back to 2008 levels. As the world's third-largest oil consumer, Japan's oil demand changes will inevitably affect world oil supply and demand, and eventually appear on international oil prices. In the past month, changes in the Middle East and North Africa have caused oil prices to soar by $15 a barrel and are still at the red alert level. In other words, changes in oil supply and demand triggered by the earthquake in Japan may add to the already high international oil prices. For the Chinese oil companies that are recovering from the global economy, especially the impact of the international financial crisis, the road ahead will be full of more challenges. In fact, the surge in international oil prices has not been seen in recent years. At the beginning of this year, the China Petroleum Economic and Technological Research Institute pointed out in a research report that the violent fluctuations in international oil prices will cause many risks, resulting in the stagnation of investment or maintenance of new oil and gas equipment, thus forming a vicious circle. Relevant experts also pointed out that the violent shocks of international oil prices will inevitably lead to a series of problems, such as the impact of normal production and operation of oil companies, the increase in cross-border energy cooperation variables, and the difficulty of “going out†and the sharp increase in risks. It can be expected that countries around the world will become more complicated while competing around energy competition, especially under the current geopolitical conflict represented by the Libyan war. The earthquake in Japan is an important node in the international energy market. It not only “shocks†the market such as petrochemicals, but also triggers new changes in energy security policies and thinking. For example, the new energy industry may achieve a rapid breakthrough. Nowadays, even though the proportion of new energy in primary energy is generally low, many countries have regarded it as one of the emerging strategies for energy security. Earthquakes that promote our reflection on energy security and policies should be a good thing. We should also see that solving energy security problems cannot be done overnight, but there is no shortage of “hands-onâ€, whether it is nuclear energy or other energy sources.