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The main obstacles that plagued the Eurozone economy in 2011 were inflationary pressures and a downside in consumption. In December 2010, the consumer price index reached 2.2%, the highest level since October 2008. In the first three months of 2011, the consumer price index was 2.3%, 2.4% and 2.7%, respectively. A 2% warning line set to maintain price stability. To this end, the European Central Bank raised its dominant interest rate by 0.25 percentage points on April 7 from the current 1% to 1.25%. The European Central Bank expects the inflation rate in the euro zone to be between 2.0% and 2.6% in 2011. Second, the debt crisis continues to plague the euro zone economy. Greece passed the austerity policy at the last moment, but the crisis was only postponed but not lifted. The IMF expects that the economic growth rate of the region in 2011 will be only 1.6%, and the German economic growth rate will be reduced by 1 percentage point from the previous year. And the Italian economy, an important exporter of diamonds, may have a double risk. The Wall Street Journal reported on July 4 that basic economic data indicates that Italy's economy is difficult. The unemployment rate rose to 8.1% in May, the manufacturing contracted in June, and the purchasing managers' index fell to 49.9 from 52.8 in May. Deutsche Bank economist Gilles Moec believes that the most important issue in Italy is to avoid the second half of the economy in the second half. Bottom. Since Italy's public spending already accounts for about half of GDP, cutting budgets will lead to a direct reduction in GDP, not just potential efficiency gains. In the first quarter of 2011, Italy's GDP grew by only 0.1%, far below the government's expectations. Whether it can achieve 1.1% growth in 2011 is questionable. Manufacturing in EU countries is not optimistic. Manufacturing growth in Germany, France, and the United Kingdom fell to their lowest levels in 17, 22, and 21 months, respectively. Manufacturing in Ireland, Spain and Greece also contracted in June. India's economy is progressing steadily as a developing country. India is an important importer of China's superhard products. In 2010, customs data showed that India is the second largest importer of diamonds and diamond products in China, which is mainly due to India's proximity. The economy that has soared for several years. According to the "India Times" news: The World Bank's 2011 Global Economic Outlook report predicted the global economic situation in 2011. The report specifically predicts that in 2012, the Indian economy will grow faster than China. The World Bank said in the report that in 2011, China's economic growth rate will still be slightly higher than India, but in 2012, India's economic growth rate will reach 8.7%, while China will be 8.4%. India will surpass China to become the fastest growing economy in the world. The report said that the development of the Indian economy was mainly due to the sharp rise in domestic consumer demand, the influx of external capital and a good international competitive environment. South Africa's economy tends to be stable In 2010, South Africa was the country that imported the most diamonds on the African continent. The South African economy gradually improved in the first half of 2011. According to South African media reports, the latest economic analysis released by The Bureau for EconomicRESearch (BER) of the South African Economic Research Agency. The report predicts that after a structural adjustment in 2011, the South African economy is expected to increase by 0.4 percentage points to 3.8%, and the overall economic development tends to be stable. The report pointed out that the economy's ability to stabilize in 2011 was mainly due to the effective increase in domestic household consumption expenditure. BER expects domestic consumption spending to increase from 4.3% in 2010 to 4.8% in 2011. The highest proportions are fixed asset investment, government spending, and inventory investment income. BER also pointed out that since the mid-2010 economic growth slightly adjusted, after the rebound in the fourth quarter of 2010, the economy in 2010 showed a positive trend. But at the same time, a South African BoE private bank report in June showed that South Africa's manufacturing output fell by 3.7% in June, much higher than the expected 0.6% decline. In addition, gold production also fell by 9.5%. The technical equipment of computer hardware increased by 15.4%. Due to the weak economic foundation and the lack of domestic consumption power, coupled with the poor investment in fixed assets, it will take time for the South African economy to fully recover. Japan's economy continued weakness in the South Korean economy passable Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa has publicly acknowledged in the first half of the Japanese economy or recession in 2011. The World Bank released the 2011 Global Economic Outlook report on June 7, which predicted that Japan’s real economic growth rate in 2011 was only 0.1%. Affected by the Great East Japan Earthquake, domestic demand and supply both fell sharply in the first half of the year, so it was close to zero growth throughout the year. The report also warned that neighboring countries with Southeast Asia as the center and exporting more to Japan and highly dependent on manufacturing “may be significantly affectedâ€. South Korea, another economic power in East Asia, on April 11, the International Currency Fund (IMF) released the first half of the World Economic Outlook revealed that South Korea's economic growth outlook this year will remain at 4.5%, but prices will rise by 4.5%. The IMF also expects South Korea's economic growth rate to be around 4.2% in 2012. This is consistent with the outlook for January last year. The Southeast Asian economy is generally optimistic Recently, the Singapore government raised its forecast for Singapore's economic growth in 2011. It is expected to grow 5%-7% for the full year, up by one percentage point from the previous forecast of 4%-6%. Mr Kwek Mean Luck, deputy permanent secretary of the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) of Singapore, said that in the manufacturing quarter, driven by a strong growth of more than 75%, the overall economic data in the first quarter was better than expected. "Steady start", "economic growth will be higher than earlier expectations" throughout the year.
In June 2011, Thailand's economic indicators still showed a multi-faceted growth trend, especially after the auto parts shortage began to ease at the end of May, and the auto industry related indicators gradually showed signs of recovery. Some production and domestic spending showed positive signs in June. Industrial production has changed from a shrinking trend in the first four months to a year-on-year increase of 3.3%. The year-on-year growth rate of private consumption and investment has slowed down to 3.5% and 7.4% due to the base effect. At the same time, automobile sales have gradually shifted from the shrinking trend in May to recovery. . In June, Thailand also achieved an increase in trade surplus. The Taihua Farmer Research Center estimates that Thailand’s GDP will grow 4.0-5.6% year-on-year in the second half of 2011, and the GDP growth rate for the full year of 2011 will be 3.5-4.5%. In the basic case, the intermediate level is 4.0%. In the first half of the year, Malaysia also achieved rapid economic growth. In the first quarter, the economy grew by 4.6%. In the first quarter, the manufacturing, service and construction industries continued to be the main drivers of economic growth, with manufacturing growth of 5.4% and service sector growth of 5.9%. Become the two pillars of economic growth. Malaysian Prime Minister Najib said that Malaysia’s economy is expected to grow by 5%-6% in 2011, reaching the government’s long-term goal. But he warned that a slowdown in global demand and rising oil prices could make it difficult to achieve this goal. Editor's note : Compared with 2010, whether it is the relative activity of the ASEAN economy or the slow rise of the European and American economies, it can be seen that in the first half of 2011, the economic growth rate of the major exporters of super-hard products declined on a month-on-month basis, and the recovery rate slowed down. This will undoubtedly increase the negative impact of China's economic slowdown and insufficient domestic demand on the industry. Despite this, macroeconomic data does not accurately represent changes in demand in downstream industries. For example, although the Japanese economy may grow to zero in 2011, the reconstruction work after the earthquake in Japan will undoubtedly bring opportunities to the industry. Due to the huge demand for building materials, furniture, stone, etc., it is bound to send orders to the super-hard industry through the industrial chain. .
Economic summary and forecast of major export regions of superhard materials and products in the first half of 2011
In the first half of 2011, the global economy continued its recovery in 2010, but the uncertainties in the recovery process increased, which led to a slowdown in growth. The prices of commodities such as energy and chemicals are rising, global inflationary pressures are increasing, and they are beginning to spread from emerging economies to advanced economies. The political situation in North Africa continues to be turbulent; the European debt crisis continues to plague developed economies; the tsunami and nuclear leaks caused by the devastating earthquake in Japan have increased the downside risks to the global economy. The IMF predicts that global economic growth will slow to 4.3% in 2011. Among them, the economic growth of developed countries was 2.4%, which was 0.6 percentage points slower than the previous year. Uncertainty in the world economy is bound to have an important impact on superhard industries that rely on foreign markets, especially for the materials market. According to customs statistics, in 2010, China exported a total of 2.16 billion carats of diamonds, amounting to 130 million US dollars, an increase of 98.84%; exporting diamond products 116 million tons, amounting to 44.13 million yuan, an increase of 55.02%. The foreign market has become an important engine for the development of the industry. For this reason, the small economic compilations and the second half of 2011 are the major exporters of some superhard products released by many international economic institutions. The US economy experienced a mild recovery in the first half of the year. The US economic growth rate was 2.8% as China's largest diamond exporter. In the first half of 2011, the US economy continued to recover moderately, but the Fed said that the economic growth rate was slightly slower than expected. In general, the US economy continued its rebound last year. Since October last year, the non-agricultural employment in the United States has continued to rise. Although the rise in April and May has slowed down, it has risen throughout 2010 and at this stage. The situation did not show a clear downward trend. Supported by steady growth in exports and consumer spending, real GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2010 reached 3.1%, and the annual economic growth was 2.9%, the largest increase in five years. However, entering the household in 2011, the kinetic energy of the US economic recovery is also insufficient. Durable goods orders continued to decline, and consumer confidence index continued to fall, indicating that consumers are cautious about the short-term trend of the economy. New home and existing home sales decreased year-on-year. In addition, high oil prices directly increase consumer passive spending and enterprise production and operation costs, which have a negative impact on the underlying consumer investment demand. The IMF expects the US economic growth rate to be 2.8% in 2011, higher than the average of developed economies, but down 0.2 percentage points from the beginning of the year. The EU economy is subject to inflation and debt crisis. The Eurozone economy recovered slowly in 2010, growing by 1.7%. The core power, Germany, is the main driver of economic growth. In 2010, Germany's economy grew by 3.6%, the largest increase since the reunification of Germany and Germany. The main contribution came from the sharp increase in exports. In 2011, the overall development of the Eurozone economy continued to improve. Industrial orders in January increased by 20.9% year-on-year, rising for four consecutive months.