February 22, 2025

Experts predict Shanghai aluminum futures on the 21st

On November 20th, Shanghai Aluminum opened slightly lower, and the volatility was lower, with the monthly contract closing slightly higher. Industry analysts believe that under the influence of factors such as the further increase of alumina production and the decrease in aluminum production costs, domestic aluminum prices will still have room to fall.

On Monday, November 20th, the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHE) aluminum main 701 contract opened at 19,800 yuan and closed at 19,770 yuan, down 50 yuan; the spot 612 contract closed at 20,220 yuan, down 70 yuan.

China Securities Futures analyst Yang Guoying believes that due to the 2007 global economy has a relatively good expectation, but the short-term trend of Shanghai aluminum is less clear.

The US Department of Commerce announced that in October, the operating rate of new housing in the United States was 1.486 million units, a decrease of 14.6% from September's revised value and a year-on-year decrease of 27.4%. This is the poor month for the new housing market in the United States since July 2000; Maintaining the 5.25% interest rate unchanged, the US real estate market further showed signs of cooling. However, at the meeting of 20 finance ministers and central bank governors held in Melbourne, Australia, global economic growth in 2007 was generally optimistic. However, Rodrigo Rato, president of the IMF, said that inflation still needs the vigilance of the industrialized countries and central banks of developing countries. He said that although oil prices have fallen from a historical high of 80 US dollars to less than the current level of 60 US dollars, but there is no sign that oil prices will continue to fall, Wall Street investment bank Lehman Brothers's new research report on the prediction, the 2007 international oil price At the level of 72 USD/barrel.

On the 17th of the LME, the three-month aluminum lowered to $2,565. The decline in c-waves has already taken place. Technically, Lun Aluminum has stabilized its requirements. As Lonco's previous upward trend has reversed after falling below $2,700, whether Aluminium will continue its current sluggish trend after a period of stabilization, I believe that this depends on the global aluminum supply growth and global economic growth. Since there is a relatively good expectation of the global economy in 2007, it is unlikely that Lum has continued to decline. In terms of copper futures, Lun Copper rebounded slightly on the 17th; fundamentals performed very poorly; LME stocks reached a level of 156,000; after the March copper fell below 7,000 US dollars, the upward trend basically came to an end.

In terms of SHFE, Shanghai Aluminium maintains a convergent triangle in the leather market. Although the fundamentals do not support the downward trend of Shanghai Aluminum after breaking 20,000, on the capital side, the strength of corn and soybeans in the surrounding markets has attracted a large number of Shanghai aluminum speculative funds. Shanghai aluminum is relatively unfavorable. In terms of copper futures, LME copper rebounded briefly in March, and Shanghai copper technology is also suspected of oversold. On the 20th, cu0701 rebounded by 260 yuan. In the fundamentals, on the 20th, the macroeconomic crisis in the macro-economy was reported. The domestic macroeconomic control policy is maintaining a heavy pressure, but whether the continuous performance is effectively implemented by the management is enough for the market to ponder.

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