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The continued sluggish external demand is the main cause of the decline
According to customs statistics, China’s total import and export value in February was 1.43 trillion yuan, down 15.7% year-on-year. Among them, exports were 821.8 billion yuan, down 20.6% year-on-year, and fell by 25.4% year-on-year in US dollars, the largest decline since May 2009, and the third largest decline in history. Imports reached 612.3 billion yuan, down 8%; trade surplus was 209.5 billion yuan, narrowing 43.3%.
For the reason why the decline in exports is so large, some analysts said that they were affected by multiple factors such as the Spring Festival factor, weak external demand and low commodity prices.
Zhao Qingming, chief economist at the China Financial Futures Exchange Research Institute, believes that since the Spring Festival factors are disturbed every year from January to February, the import and export data for the first two months are more accurate. However, even from the import and export data of the previous two months in recent years, the year-on-year declines in import and export and exports were 12.6% and 13.1%, respectively, which were only slightly better than the same period in 2009.
The main reason for the continuous decline in exports is the continued sluggish external demand. Zhao Qingming said that the economic data released by the United States and the European Union are not as expected, and the situation of Japan's economic contraction is difficult to change in the short term. In addition, the international financial market fluctuated sharply from the end of last year to the beginning of February this year, and the exchange rates of some emerging market countries' currencies were affected, thus weakening the purchasing power of these countries for imported products.
Zhao Qingming believes that although the price of commodities has rebounded slightly this year, the average import prices of major commodities have fallen by 18% to 33% year-on-year. The first two months of the import and export start were unfavorable, indicating the severe trade situation this year.
Data from major exporting countries have shrunk
The export volume has dropped by more than 20%, although there are some accidents, but it is also reasonable. Zhao Qingming said that the trade data of other exporting countries other than my foreign countries have also shrunk.
From the data point of view, Japan's exports in January fell by 12.9% year-on-year, the largest decline since 2009, shrinking for four consecutive months. South Korea's exports in the first 20 days of February fell by 17.3% year-on-year, falling for the 14th consecutive month.
Another coordinate system for reference is China's share of global trade. Although China's import and export data is not eye-catching, last year's global trade in goods fell by about 11%, while China's only a drop of about 3%. In Zhao Qingming's view, the international share of China's exports will not decline this year, and it is still expected to improve, and it will still outperform the world.
“Emerging market countries have lost their economic driving force in the course of this round of commodity declines,†Tian Yun, editor-in-chief of China’s macroeconomic information network, told the Beijing News. At a time when commodity prices have fallen, the United States has supported the US economy by increasing imports of energy and oil, but this is not necessarily a good thing for resource-based countries.
Foreign trade growth targets are no longer quantified
The market generally believes that the foreign trade data for the first two months of this year and the government work report just released have fully clarified the severe foreign trade situation this year.
It is worth noting that this year's government work report did not mention the foreign trade growth target. Premier Li Keqiang said that the import and export target for 2016 was “stable and good,†but no specific target figures were given. Last year's government work report clearly stated that the annual import and export growth rate was around 6%. However, due to the international economic downturn and the collapse of commodity prices, the actual import and export volume shrank by 7% last year.
Zhao Qingming said that due to the volatile fluctuations in commodity prices, the situation of import and export this year is not clear. However, once imports become better, exports will also turn better. Of course, due to the lag in price conduction, the degree of export improvement will be weaker than that of imports. Therefore, the trade surplus may be narrowed.
â– Viewpoint “The most optimistic estimate this year is zero growthâ€
For this year's trade momentum, Zhao Qingming said that the global trade situation is sluggish and the price of trade goods is falling. It is difficult for China's policy to change. Therefore, the most optimistic estimate for this year's import and export is zero growth.
In response to the grim situation, this year the government plans to introduce a number of policies to “prevent the decline of import and exportâ€. Specific measures include export tax rebates, credit insurance optimization, e-commerce pilots, service trade innovation, promotion of trade facilitation and more aggressive import policies.
In response to the impact of de-capacity on imports and exports, some analysts pointed out that although the domestic de-capacity policy did not bring strong demand recovery, it was enough to change the inventory behavior of enterprises, that is, from de-stocking to re-stocking cycle, it is expected to import. It will form a relative recovery in 1-2 quarters, and exports are difficult to be optimistic during the year.
February's export hit the biggest drop in 7 years, the lack of external demand is the main cause
Abstract The foreign trade situation is not optimistic. On March 8, the General Administration of Customs announced the “transcripts†for foreign trade import and export in the first two months of this year. Among them, exports in February were 821.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 20.6%. However, some experts believe that it is put into the international...
The foreign trade situation is not optimistic. On March 8, the General Administration of Customs announced the “transcripts†for foreign trade import and export in the first two months of this year. Among them, exports in February were 821.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 20.6%. However, some experts believe that this performance still outperforms the world.