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Expected optimistic economic outlook
Since the second half of this year, as China's economic growth slowdown has been effectively curbed and gradually stabilized, the market's confidence in the future Chinese economy is picking up. This survey of China's economic sentiment index also confirmed this point. The survey results show that China's current economic sentiment index is 23.4, although lower than the US economy (28.1), but significantly exceeds the European economy's prosperity index (-22.6). For the forecast of economic trends next year, the survey believes that the expected growth rate of China's economic growth in 2014 is stable at around 7.6%.
For the Chinese stock market and the property market trend that the market is generally concerned about, experts are generally optimistic about the forecast of the Shanghai Composite Index. For the future, China’s stock market outlook is bullish, and the financial institutions’ operating income is expected to increase. On the other hand, experts are on China. The expectation of housing prices has dropped, and the housing price index has declined significantly compared with the past. It tends to judge that further reforms will govern the current real estate market.
"Overall, we believe that China's future economic prospects are optimistic." Sun Lijian, director of the Financial Research Center of Fudan University, said that compared with the results of last month's survey, this month can clearly feel that more experts have recognized the rise in the prosperity index. . From the perspective of regional economy, in addition to the downward adjustment of the economic indicators of Beijing and Hong Kong, the economies of first- and second-tier cities such as Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Chongqing are picking up.
Industry recovery drives recovery
“The first reason to support China’s economic climate is that most industries are starting to pick up.†Sun Lijian analyzed that in addition to the construction industry’s impact on the real estate industry, other non-financial industries, including information, chemicals, communications, and equipment manufacturing, The future is showing an upward trend. In addition, as China's economic structure is adjusted to the current stage, it will increase governance of overcapacity industries, which will increase the employment pressure of labor-intensive industries, and the industry sentiment index will decline.
Although the stock market has been affected by the recent IPO new policy, experts are still optimistic about China's capital market. In this regard, Sun Lijian believes that the current supervision of banks has been continuously strengthened, and the business of real estate mortgage loans has been suppressed, but the prosperity index of the capital market is rising. Due to the deepening of China's capital market reform and liquidity easing, as well as the economic fundamentals, the Shanghai Composite Index and the Growth Enterprise Market Index are generally bullish in the future, which opens up profit margins for investment banks, insurance institutions and other financial institutions.
Sun Lijian said that the Third Plenary Session stressed that the market played a decisive role in resource allocation, showing that the market vitality will increase, and everyone gave an optimistic judgment on the country's future economic development.
In addition, the Green Paper published by the National Information Center recently pointed out that from the external environment, the international economic environment will be generally stable next year, and the economies of developed countries such as the United States, Japan and Europe are expected to further improve. Internally, after the 18th National Congress, China attaches more importance to structural adjustment. And the quality of growth, the continuous release of reform dividends, infrastructure investment and inventory replenishment factors will promote the steady growth of China's economy.
The future faces a complex environment
Although the overall trend of the Chinese economy is improving in the future, there are still many difficulties and problems to be solved. Zhu Baoliang, director of the Economic Forecasting Department of the National Information Center, pointed out that, first of all, overcapacity restricts economic recovery; secondly, financial and financial risks are increasing; third, the differentiation of the real estate market has intensified systemic risks; finally, the burden of operating costs has increased, and the impact of meager profit Future investment, technological transformation and other production activities.
“Although the indicators are expected to be good, the equilibrium state of the world economy is still fragile, and the turmoil in the Fed’s quantitative easing policy may trigger a big change in the results of the next round of investigations.†Sun Lijian believes that US prices will pick up in the future, plus Geopolitical instability, once a large amount of funds are returned to the United States, will lead to a large withdrawal of hot money from China. In addition, the establishment of the Shanghai Free Trade Zone and the offshore RMB business will increase the openness of China's financial sector and have a great impact on the RMB. The inflow of hot money will increase the pressure on the appreciation of the renminbi, and the large outflow of hot money will lead to a sharp fall in the financial market and bring pressure on the depreciation of the renminbi.
"In 2014, China's economic situation is complicated inside and outside. How can we strive for stability, maintain vigor at the micro level, and correct the policy direction at the macro level?" Sun Lijian emphasized that the market design of the market should play a decisive role in the allocation of resources, we must make The return of funds to the real economy, on the one hand, should relax administrative control, on the other hand, it must strengthen the governance of financial market bubbles and hot money speculation, and the governance of financial markets should be blocked and released. At the same time, we must continue to improve administrative efficiency, give private enterprises and state-owned enterprises the same treatment, and make private capital play an important role in the national economy.
Nearly 80% of experts are optimistic about China's economy next year
Abstract Recently, the Financial Research Center of Fudan University released the latest China Economic Climate Index. The results show that China's one-year economic sentiment index is 36, which is a significant increase from the October data, reflecting the market's optimism about the economic development trend in the next year. . In the world under investigation...
Recently, the Financial Research Center of Fudan University released the latest China Economic Climate Index. The results show that China's one-year economic sentiment index is 36, which is a significant increase from the October data, reflecting the market's optimism about the economic development trend in the next year. Among the experts in various fields of the world surveyed, it is expected that China’s economy will account for 78.2% in the next 12 months. 9.4% of experts believe that China’s economic development remains stable, and another 12.5% ​​of experts believe that China’s economy There will be a small decline.