◇ Since February, the LME Composite Index, which represents the price trend of major metal products, has refreshed its October high, and zinc and copper have performed more eye-catching.调 To increase the price forecasts of copper and zinc in 2005, and increase the profit forecasts of Tongdu Copper, Jiangxi Copper, and Zhongjin Lingnan. ◇ A-share investors are bearish on metal prices, especially copper prices, causing a divergence between metal prices and stock prices. ◇ The price of gold is only a catalyst for the performance of stock prices. The company’s strategy and faster pace of resource expansion are the core of investment value. It is recommended to pay attention to gold in gold. □ Shen Yin Wanguo Institute Ren Yunhe entered 2005, the international metal market gradually emerged from the winding of the dollar, out of the independent market, in which zinc performance is more prominent, since the New Year rose nearly 10%. Although the stage gains are not as significant as zinc, the recent increase in copper's deterrent effect on the market clearly exceeds that of zinc. First, copper is a non-ferrous metal leading product with a high degree of market attention. Secondly, London’s copper broke through the $3,200 mark in March and set a new bull market for copper prices starting in 2003, exceeding investors, especially domestic A-share investors. The expectation. The short-term optimistic copper prices hit a new high in the current round, and we believe that technical factors outweigh the fundamentals. Because whether it is the rebound of the US dollar after the New Year, or LME stocks increased slightly, do not support the rise in copper prices, of course, international funds still have the motivation and conditions for doing more than copper, so that the price of copper can be broken out. The international capital's use of the contradiction between the supply and demand in the Chinese market and the use of the Chinese capital-Shanghai arbitrage operating model have caused a major breakthrough in copper prices. The bears are not dead, and the bulls are not alone. We believe that the copper price will continue to rise in the short-term. From a medium-term perspective, our judgment on the significant reduction in the copper supply and demand gap in the world in 2005 has not changed. It also includes the judgment that the copper price is high before and after the year. However, we still believe that copper and Jiangxi Copper are still undervalued. In the past half year, the market has turned a deaf ear to the strong performance of copper prices. The fundamental reason is that most investors wishfully look at copper prices. The deviation from the market's long-term pricing mistakes in the stock price and metal prices is one of the driving forces for the stock price to rise. The copper short sellers in the futures market paid a heavy price; most investors in the A-share market looked at the prices of steel and non-ferrous metals a year ago, and the market is asking for tuition from them. Practice has proved that commodity prices, especially the short-term trends, are indeed unpredictable, and wishful thinking to see more or bearish is an irrational choice. The mature investment concept of the international market is somewhat similar to the fool strategy. The typical performance is that metal prices are closely linked with stock prices. Comparing the trend of Jiangxi Copper A-shares and H-shares, it can explain the deviation of the A-share resource companies from the metal price trend. In other words, although the short-term stock prices of the two key copper companies have performed, they are considered as metal prices. There is still more than 20% of the error correction space, after all, copper prices hit a new high in 15 years, while the stock price is at historically low levels. We increase the prediction of the copper price in 2005 from 24,590 yuan to 26,190 yuan in the forecast model. Jiangxi Copper increased its EPS from 0.46 yuan to 0.53 yuan in 2005, an increase of 15.2%, and copper business in 2005 from 0.465 yuan to 0.519. Yuan, an increase of 11.61%. Jiangxi Copper has a higher proportion of self-produced copper, benefiting from a more significant increase in copper prices. Its performance in recent days is far inferior to that of copper, and there will be better opportunities for compensatory growth. Zinc into a star category is no suspense LME zinc stocks are gradually falling, zinc prices have become a strong trend since the New Year. Indeed, from the aspect of supply and demand, China’s demand for zinc is increasing rapidly. In 2004, China’s zinc net imports were 20,000 tons, and after 18 years, it was changed from a net exporter to a net importer. In 2004 and 2005, it exceeded 10 million tons annually. The construction of galvanized sheet also provided strong support for the continued bullishness of zinc consumption. The key is different from copper, zinc's ability to increase upstream capacity is not strong. We expect that once the LME zinc inventories drop 600,000 tons, the zinc price will continue to climb to a new level (the newer inventory level is 610,000 tons). The amount of lead and zinc in the Zhongjin Lingnan Mine is relatively abundant and worthy of attention.