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In the context of the global economic recession, whether the Chinese economy can gradually recover from the bottom after the first quarter has become a topic of market attention. How to treat the current Chinese economy? What are the recent changes in key indicators such as credit, foreign trade and prices? At the seminar on economic situation held by Tsinghua University China and World Economic Research Center, some experts and scholars expressed their views.
Local recovery
"Although it cannot be called comprehensive recovery, the Chinese economy has already shown signs of partial recovery." Li Daokui, economic director of the China and World Economic Research Center of Tsinghua University, believes that this kind of growth is reflected in the growth of investment. On the other hand, it is reflected in the growth of consumption. "At present, the total retail sales of consumer goods in the whole society is at the highest level in 16 years, which is very rare." Li Daokui said.
Jia Kang, director of the Finance Department of the Ministry of Finance, believes that although some data in the first quarter of this year will be ugly, with the implementation of the 4 trillion yuan investment measures, the policy effect will be fully manifested in the next few months, and the Chinese economy will be realized. Low and then high growth.
"According to the inventory theory, companies will take about two quarters to digest inventory. Now it seems that this process is basically close to the end. We should not be too pessimistic about the economic situation," said Zhang Jianhua, director of the Research Bureau of the People's Bank of China.
Relevant data show that the China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index has risen for three consecutive months after bottoming out last year, and the electricity consumption indicators that reflect the production activity of enterprises have begun to rise in some provinces and cities in the eastern coastal areas.
"Overall, compared with the United States, the European Union and Japan, China's economy is still good, and its economic growth rate is still at a high level. In particular, our fiscal policy and monetary policy have a relatively large space for application." Guotai Junan Securities Co., Ltd. Scientist Li Xunlei said.
The credit boom in the first quarter has become a foregone conclusion
Since November last year, China’s monthly new RMB loans have continued to increase in volume, and the four-month increase is close to the annual increase in the past few years. Since credit growth is an important indicator for stimulating the economy, the market is particularly concerned about the credit increase and investment in March.
"Although the specific figures have not come out in March, we can judge from the data observations of the previous 20 days that China's credit growth rate is still at a high level in March. At present, this credit growth is sustainable." Zhang Jianhua said.
More participating experts paid attention to the direction of bank credit. "For the economy as a whole, credit growth is the most important driving force for economic development. Growth is a good thing, but we must pay attention to the credit structure and investment fields," said Yi Xianrong, a researcher at the Institute of Finance of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
"After the large amount of funds, the liquidity of the entire financial sector is still relatively abundant, but whether the money can enter the real economy is doubtful." Li Xunlei said.
“From the data of the previous two months, bill financing accounts for a certain proportion. However, according to what we have learned, it is not easy for companies to conduct speculative activities through bill financing. In fact, bill financing has largely solved the financing of SMEs. Demand has alleviated the increasingly tight capital chain pressure of SMEs in production and distribution activities," said Zhang Jianhua.
Zhang Jianhua believes that in order to cope with the central government's investment projects, in general, the bulk of the previous credit growth has invested in 4 trillion investment-driven projects, and the structural transformation of credit is the next step to be promoted.
Focus on deflation and inflation risks
In response to the deflationary debate triggered by the continuous decline in prices, experts at the meeting said that deflation should be closely related to the inflation risks that may arise in the future.
"The current price has been completely negative, and it is very serious. We must be vigilant about this severity," said Yuan Gangming, a researcher at the China and World Economic Research Center of Tsinghua University.
Will China enter the deflation channel? In this regard, Zhang Jianhua believes that the so-called deflation can not only look at price indicators, but also depends on whether the currency increases.
"Our currency is still growing, market liquidity is still abundant. Although the price index is lower, it is still too early to say that deflation is short. We have not entered the typical deflation." Some experts also warned of possible inflationary pressures in the long run. . Lei Dingming, a professor at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, believes that with the introduction of the US$300 billion bond purchase program, the world's major central banks will open printing machines, and the currency's competitive depreciation strategy will push prices up, and global inflation will inevitably come.
The China and World Economic Research Center of Tsinghua University predicts that the urban consumer price index will bottom out in the second quarter, and there will be no sustained inflation for the time being.
External demand has become more "cold"
According to the WTO report, the world trade volume is expected to decline by 9% in 2009, and the developed economies will fall by 10%. The sharp shrinking of external demand will seriously test the role of China's export engine.
"The impact of external shocks on China's exports is increasing. The economies of Europe and the United States will further fall into recession, the destocking of the real economy, and the recovery of the US savings rate and the decline in consumption will lead to a very harsh economic environment for China's exports. Zhang Yansheng, director of the Foreign Economic Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, said.
However, Zhang Yansheng also believes that at present, although external demand has become more "cold", the domestic support for imports and exports is strengthening. "The active supporting role of domestic policies is emerging and will provide some support for exports."
Li Daokui reminded that from some recent signs, the US economy may achieve an earlier recovery. "The price of the rapid recovery of the US economy will be a rapid rise in global raw material prices. Since China is a country that relies on the import of raw materials, this transmission effect will have a negative impact on China's economic growth." Li Daokui said.