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"In fact, the market is still relatively optimistic before the Spring Festival, and the price will rise. I didn't expect the price of the module to be adjusted after a slight increase of two or three cents after the Spring Festival. Then it began to fall." Ma Yi, vice president of Photovoltaic I said in an interview with the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
According to industry data, the price of polysilicon batteries was lowered first two weeks ago, and then the price of polysilicon wafers began to decline last week. The iconic event was that the industry leader, Poly GCL, lowered the wafers in March. selling price.
“The price of silicon wafers is the correction after the rise at the beginning of the year. The overall decline is expected to begin at the end of the second quarter. As far as monocrystalline silicon wafers are concerned, there is a larger single crystal in the bidding design scheme of the predecessors of the '6·30' plan. Proportion, insufficient supply led to excessive rise in single crystal prices. It is expected that after the '6·30' transaction will be deserted, the decline will increase. Polysilicon is expected to rise in the first half of this year and fall in the second half, which will be relatively flat.†Vice President of GCL-Poly Lu Jinbiao told reporters.
He believes that whether it is single polycrystalline, silicon, silicon or battery components, it is in a downward channel from the trend of the whole year. However, due to the large number of rushing installations before the “6·30â€, the relative transaction in the first half of the year is still relatively strong. In the second half of the year, the transaction will be frozen and the price will fall. It is expected that it will recover in the fourth quarter. "Slanted N-type" track. In terms of structure, the rise of the polysilicon wafer and battery module series in the first half of the year and the decline in the second half of the year were relatively flat, and the magnitude was not as dramatic as that of the single crystal series.
“The reason for this price decline is firstly the introduction of the installed capacity indicators by the Energy Bureau at the end of last year. These indicators will take up this year’s share and must be completed by June 30, which is equivalent to the installation demand after June 30 this year. Before '6·30', some of these supplementary indicators have actually been installed, and the remaining demand is not very large, but the supply is very abundant.†Ma Wei told reporters that the capacity utilization rate of domestic manufacturers before the Spring Festival is still maintained. At 100%, but has started to decline in the last two weeks.
He believes that last week should be an inflection point, the follow-up PV industry chain may open a long price cut, and the price of components may fall very quickly, but the second half is even worse, the entire "winter" period may last for one year. “We believe that this round of price decline means the PV cycle since 2004 and the end of the mid-cycle since 2012.â€
To add insult to injury, the EU’s rumors of the end of the EU’s “double-reverse†on China’s photovoltaic products have not been fulfilled, and related measures continue to be extended.
In this regard, Wang Hejun, director of the Trade Relief and Investigation Bureau of the Ministry of Commerce, said last week that the Chinese side has noticed that the European Commission has shortened the period of measures from the proposed 24 months to 18 months and will gradually slow down to the final cancellation measures. Regrettably, the European Commission decided to continue to extend the measure despite the opposition of many member states and industries within the EU and the Chinese industry.
A senior domestic PV company that did not want to be named told reporters that the EU's implementation of "double opposition" to China's PV has not saved the local manufacturing industry for two years, nor can it prevent China's PV manufacturing industry from expanding its advantage to occupy the global photovoltaic power generation market. The previously agreed Sino-European PV price commitments also have many restrictions on Chinese exporters, leading to the exit of major exporters from China, and the export to the EU is almost stopped. The price limit for China's polysilicon price commitment to the EU is not strict, and it is not limited. It shows that the polysilicon imported into China has not decreased in recent years.
It is reported that Solarworld, Germany's largest PV company, which pushed the EU's anti-dumping against China's PV products, was in serious operational difficulties last year, with a loss of 62 million euros in the first nine months and a net debt of 315 million euros. In a recent news statement, the company said it will stop production of polycrystalline products from this year and will reduce 400 jobs by 2019.
"In fact, the European market is very small, and it is not very important to China. And a large number of domestic enterprises have opened factories overseas, which can avoid the restriction of 'double anti-'. However, the withdrawal of European subsidies is still the continuous introduction of PV subsidies by countries. One of the signs that constitute the end of the big cycle." Ma said.
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The price of polysilicon chips will fall. Will China's PV market enter the "winter period"?
Abstract Another important node in the development of China's PV industry is coming: On the evening of February 28th, the industry leader Poly GCL lowered the sales price of silicon wafers in March; followed by March 1, the European Commission announced that it would Anti-dumping and countervailing measures were extended for 18 months. Part of the industry...
Another important node in the bumpy development of China's PV industry is coming: On the evening of February 28th, the industry leader Poly GCL lowered the price of silicon wafer sales in March; followed by March 1, the European Commission announced that it would anti-dumping against China PV. Countervailing measures were extended for 18 months. Some industry insiders believe that a round of photovoltaic boom cycle may end, the overall price downtrend has already started, and the market will enter a severe "winter" period.