China's PV will also expand production?

The winter of photovoltaics is still going on, but it has a different atmosphere in July, and the news of PV expansion about the expansion has hit.

Following the July 10th, when Artes Sunshine said it would consider building a 700MW high-efficiency solar cell production plant, Yingli Green Energy Chairman Miao Liansheng said on the 12th that Yingli's Hainan plant will start another 1GW capacity plan in the near future.

Prior to this, CLP's 1GW Yangzhou high-efficiency battery base has already started, and Xinxin Technology hopes to complete the new plan for the 300MW photovoltaic cell factory with the listing. This is just the data disclosed by the media. For undisclosed data or newcomers, how large is the new production or expansion?

From the third quarter of 2011, the impact of the European debt crisis, the reduction of photovoltaic subsidies, the double reverse of the United States and other multiple squeezes, the voice of surplus in the photovoltaic industry has risen and fallen, even though it faces an absolutely growing market: 2011 global The newly installed PV installation volume was 26.9GW, a year-on-year increase of 70%; the famous photovoltaic organization IMR Research predicted that the value would be 27.8-32.6GW in 2012, and there will still be a 21% increase.

The voice of the skeptics is that there are currently about 54 GW of PV module capacity in the world. Even with this, even the global PV installations in 2015 will be more than enough. However, Liu Wenping, vice president of Hongya Generation Investment Consulting Co., Ltd., has different voices: 54GW of PV module capacity, but 16 of them are inefficient, so 38GW of effective capacity corresponds to the new installed capacity in 2012-2013, just the right proportion. .

The expanders also have their own logic: for example, 60MW batteries and 60MW component production lines, the cost of turnkey projects today is about 150 million yuan, and four years ago, the price of these equipment required more than 300 million yuan. After four years of reincarnation, the price of equipment has been realized. Nowadays, PV is introduced, and the components produced by it can only compete with existing products even if they consider only five years of depreciation.

The current state of the photovoltaic industry is similar to the path of each technology in achieving large-scale industrialization in China. Relying on the combination of Shi Zhengrong, Zhao Jianhua, Wang Aihua, Zhang Fengming, Dai Ximing and other returnees, local talents, low-cost labor, and the influx of private capital, China's PV industry has grown from a small brick pile in the past 10 years. A skyscraper that looks up to the world. Even under the impact of the financial crisis and the European debt crisis, there is still an influx of capital, which makes the cost of the entire industrial chain drop rapidly – ​​this cost reduction has surpassed the technological progress itself.

This destructive innovation has two effects: international companies face China's entire industry chain and lower cost competition, and they are losing ground. No country can do as many as 100 companies in China. On the other hand, the cost of photovoltaic on-grid power generation has reached 0.8 yuan/kWh in 2012. Considering thermal power desulfurization and environmental pollution costs, it can compete with conventional energy sources.

However, such destructive innovations have their drawbacks: American Evergreen Solar, SpectraWatt, Solyndra, and German companies such as Solon, So-lar Millennium, and Ralos New Energies have all gone bankrupt, and new energy trade wars have followed; domestic PV companies have gone bankrupt. Eight mid-share PV companies listed in the US have suffered losses for three consecutive quarters, and such losses may continue until the end of 2012.

Then, under the call of expansion, in the face of the temptation of higher conversion efficiency and lower power generation cost of photovoltaic power generation, what about the tens of billions and hundreds of billions of investments? And who will remember the forerunners or followers who are already lying on the beach? The photovoltaic industry is becoming more and more like the electronics consumer industry.

Interestingly, digital equipment vendors confirmed to reporters that although several manufacturers now claim to expand production, they have received only about 1 GW of equipment order capacity. "There is still no timetable for when these equipments are delivered to the project."

Behind a wave of expansion, the reality of thunder and heavy rain, what brand of photovoltaics do you play? Is it possible to scare off investors who are likely to enter the industry, or let second and third-tier manufacturers dare not venture or even quit early?

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