February 22, 2025

The latest stock rating of the four major brokerages (November 17)

Yihua Wood (600978)

Rating: Recommended

Rating agency: Huatai Securities


In the first nine months, the amount of furniture exported decreased by 8.39% year-on-year, of which US $ 2.074 billion was exported in September, which was basically the same as the same period last year. The gradual recovery of the peripheral economy in the future will continue to promote the export of the furniture industry. The company's main revenue and net profit in the first three quarters increased by 1.31% and 26.6% year-on-year, which was mainly due to the stable operation of the orders signed in the previous period, and the company is also optimistic about the orders next year. As the company's exported furniture all uses its own brand, and the increase in furniture export tax rebate rate and cost reduction, the gross profit margin has been increased to a certain extent. Looking forward to the fourth quarter, as the company's additional project Meizhou Huisheng 100,000 sets of office furniture has been put into production, and with the arrival of the peak sales season, the company's performance this year should be relatively good.

The company's other projects are still in the running-in period until the first half of next year, and production will start in the second half of next year, looking forward to the outbreak of next year's performance. The company generally signs order agreements and purchase prices with suppliers at the end of the next few years. The company's main revenue is expected to reach 2.8 billion yuan next year, a year-on-year increase of 40%. It is predicted that the company's earnings per share in 2009-2011 will be 0.3, 0.4, 0.51 yuan. As the company's performance growth is more certain next year, the current stock price is significantly undervalued and given a "recommended" rating.

Taiyuan Heavy Industry (600169)

Rating: Buy

Rating agency: Oriental Securities

The company is a leading enterprise in China's heavy machinery industry. In the future, it will fully benefit from the product structure upgrade of the heavy machinery industry, such as the upgrade of excavators to 55 cubic meters, the development of coking equipment to 6 meters and above, and the entry of wind power equipment to high power. The replacement space is vast. At the same time, the proportion of the company's downstream metallurgical business dropped from the highest 60% to the current 30% -40%, and product structure adjustment has achieved initial results. In the future, the company will continue to vigorously develop energy, mining, railway equipment and other related products. Driven by product structure upgrades and structural adjustments, the company ’s net profit attributable to the parent company will grow at a compound growth rate of 23.51% in the next three years.

Large excavators, wind power equipment and other products are the main growth points in the near future. The company has basically occupied the entire market share of large excavations under 35 cubic meters, and 55 cubic meters of super-large excavators are gradually replacing imports. The company vigorously develops wind power products and plans to first develop wind power gearboxes, main shafts and other spare parts, and gradually extend into the field of wind power complete machines. The additional issuance projects such as Lingang Heavy Equipment Base will reach new capacity, and new profit growth points will be formed.

It is estimated that the company's earnings per share in 2009-2011 will be 0.79, 0.93, and 1.19 yuan, respectively. According to the 2010 PE of 25 times and the target price of 23.25 yuan, the rating will be upgraded to "buy".

Oriental Ocean (002086)

Rating: Recommended

Rating agency: Qilu Securities

The company's new sea area will begin mass production in 2010. The company acquired 41,100 mu of sea area in 2008, which was mainly used for sea cucumber breeding. Among them, the sea areas of Danzi Island and Haiyang have been seeded on a small scale, and some were harvested in winter 2009; however, due to cooperative project development and other reasons, the three projects will be delayed until April 2010. In 2008, the company's sea cucumber fishing volume was 200 tons, and it is expected to reach 400 tons in 2010, and then the scale will increase year by year. The volume of sea cucumber business is the company's biggest attraction. The company has not started large-scale fishing of sea cucumbers in autumn and winter, but we expect the prices of sea cucumber fishing to rebound in the peak consumption season.

The easy-to-absorb water-soluble collagen products developed by the company belong to turning waste into treasure. They were affirmed and praised by Premier Wen when he inspected the enterprise, and are expected to become a new profit growth point. The gross profit rate of collagen products is very high. The current production capacity is 200 tons per year. The company has hired a professional distribution team and is in the stage of recruiting franchisees. Other businesses are mainly stable.

Sea cucumber fishing is expected to expand exponentially in 2010. If the price of sea cucumbers rises in winter, the performance is expected to exceed expectations. Temporarily maintain the profit forecast of 0.23 yuan in 2009 and 0.35 yuan in 2010. The company's PE valuation pressure is greater, considering that the company is expected to explode after 2010, the rating is upgraded to "recommended".

CIMC Group (000039)

Rating: Overweight

Rating agency: Haitong Securities

The acquisition of Yantai Raffles through the acquisition of the company has reduced the cost of entering the offshore engineering equipment market, which is conducive to the rapid use of Yantai Raffles' competitive advantage to enter the offshore engineering equipment market. The price of this cash offer is relatively cheap. The price of 1.41 USD / share is only equivalent to 19.85 times PE in 2008, which is a discount to the 17-20 times PE valuation in 2009 in the secondary market of domestic professional shipbuilding companies. If the cash tender offer to acquire 44.79% of the equity can be completed this year, under prudent estimates, the company ’s 2009 earnings per share will be increased by 0.04 yuan.

Based on the general trend of offshore engineering equipment manufacturing shifting to the domestic industry, Raffles has the first-mover competitive advantage, maintains the "overweight" rating, long-term optimistic about the company's prospects in the marine equipment industry.

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